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Widespread Rain Wed; Light Snow Wed PM

Good morning folks! Yesterday's storms produced some hail and a wide range of rainfall totals across SW NC, with most folks only picking up 0.25 - 0.50", while a handful of locations surpassed the half inch mark but all fell short of the one inch mark. Otto came close with 0.97" and Highlands was the runner-up with 0.67" of rain from Sat AM - Sun AM. Regionwide showers are falling as I type this discussion (8:45am), which is a few hours earlier than previously forecasted but the totals should end up being the same with another 1 - 2" likely by time everything dries out this evening. Dry air will rush into the region after the rain ends this evening and sub freezing temps arrive for the higher elevations above 4000' overnight into Monday. Sunshine and NW winds make up the action for Monday and we may luck out on Tuesday, but southerly flow ahead of the incoming front Wednesday should bring us high clouds after midday and a few showers around sunset. Precip coverage expands slightly overnight into Wednesday and will eventually become widespread sometime Wednesday morning. The frontal passage Wednesday looks to occur sometime around midday Wednesday but this could change as we near the middle of next week, so be sure to check in Tuesday morning for our latest discussion. This round of rain will bring us 1.25 - 2.5" of rain from Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday evening and light snow is likely along the ridgelines overnight into Thursday. Colder air pours into the region Thursday and will keep temps to the 30's and 40s across the landscape with a hard freeze likely Thursday night as temps dip into the 20's regionwide. Temps slowly moderate Friday into next weekend but at least it will be dry as we round out the work and school week.

The band of showers and thunderstorms sweeping the region this morning will end before midday and although some light showers linger in the post frontal flow, we should be able to sneak out a dry-ish afternoon, although it will be cloudy and windy with NW winds gusting to 20 - 40mph this afternoon and evening. Overnight lows plummet to the upper 20's above 4000' tonight, while the valleys flirt with the low - mid 30's under clearing skies.

Monday will be a touch cooler with temps only reaching the upper 40's - mid 60's depending upon elevation and NW winds will gradually wind down to a light breeze later in the day, all under sunny skies. Clear skies prevail Monday night and although moisture levels remain low, southerly winds should keep frost at bay as temps dip into the mid - upper 30's across the region.

Tuesday and Wednesday bring change to the region, with sunshine to start the day Tuesday and high clouds are likely to fill in across the are before sunset. Light rain develops before sunset but coverage will be isolated and as we move through the overnight hours coverage expands, becoming widespread by the mid morning hours on Wednesday. Heavy rain with strong thunderstorms are possible Wednesday as the front crosses the region and coverage drops off during the late afternoon hours, drying out completely before sunrise on Thursday. For the highest elevations above 4500' light snow is likely Wednesday night, however coverage should scale back to the TN line so this will not be regionwide, more of a light, late season NW flow event. Temps Tuesday warm to the mid 50's - upper 60's, settling to the upper 40's - low 50's overnight into Wednesday, returning to the mid 50's - upper 60's Wednesday afternoon. Overnight lows Wednesday night drop into the low 20's - low 30's and although this is subfreezing, frost and freeze is not likely Thursday due to strong NW winds.

Thursday will be chilly, with highs more in line with mid - late February than early April. Temps only make it to the low - mid 30's above 5000', while the valleys warm to the mid - upper 40's! Sunshine rules the day and clear skies carry over into the overnight hours, with temps plummeting to the low - upper 20's regionwide, ensuring a freeze by sunrise on Friday. Sunny skies continue for Friday and Saturday, with temps slowly moderating back to normal, reaching the upper 40's - mid 60's by next weekend.

We'll stop here and circle back Tuesday morning with an updated timeline for the regionwide rainfall Wednesday and a better grasp for the end of the week warmup.

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