Wet Wed/Thur; Late Day Showers Fri
Good afternoon folks! Hope everyone had a fun holiday weekend and took advantage of the sunshine because we'll enter a new pattern this week as Elsa influences the forecast. The latest track for Elsa keeps the bulk of the action to our southeast and we may end up experiencing drier weather if it tracks just right, but not completely dry. While Elsa moves across the Carolinas Wednesday afternoon into Thursday evening, an upper level trough will begin to inch eastward and this will be the main trigger for shower development Wednesday and Thursday. A weak frontal passage occurs Friday afternoon that will spark another round of showers and then we enter a typical summertime setup this weekend, with muggy conditions and afternoon pop up showers/thunderstorms between 3 - 7pm. Forecasted rainfall totals from the WPC don't show much for our region today (Tuesday) through Sunday but overall we should pick up 1 - 3" of rain (depending upon intensities/locations) this week, which is fairly typical for the middle of July. Temps are expected to cool down a few degrees Wednesday and Thursday but return to the upper 80's this weekend for the valleys.
We'll start the timeline on Wednesday and we start the day in the upper 50's - low 60's depending upon elevation, with patchy fog across the valleys. Temps warm to the low 70's - low 80's tomorrow afternoon and clouds will slowly increase as the day moves along, with scattered showers developing closer to sunset. Most of SW NC will be in play for shower activity, however for those who live just below a westerly or northerly facing ridgeline, you may end up with lower totals than your neighbors. Scattered showers will continue overnight into Thursday, with temps settling once again into the upper 50's - low 60's.
Thursday is likely to be our wettest day of the week, but only tied to coverage as intensities remain light - moderate and thunderstorm development looks dampened a bit as Elsa passes to our southeast. Temps warm to the upper 60's - low 80's and most of the region will pick up 0.25 - 0.50" of rain, with scattered showers winding down after midnight; lows once again in the upper 50's - low 60's.
Friday offers up some sunshine but a weak cold front will arrive late in the day and trigger scattered thunderstorms across the region, which should fizzle out by 9 - 10pm. Temps push into the upper 60's - mid 80's Friday afternoon, alongside continuing muggy conditions.
Saturday and Sunday offers up even more sunshine but beware what you wish for because the more sun we receive, the higher the chance a pop up shower or thunderstorm develops. This weekend will be a return to typical summertime weather, so if you want full to partial sunshine to enjoy the day, get outside before 2pm to ensure you are not rudely interrupted by developing showers. Temps each afternoon push into the low 70's above 5000', while the valleys inch into the upper 80's.
We'll stop here and circle back on Thursday with a better look at the weekend and how long this pattern lingers. ENJOY!