Wet through Wed; Near Freezing Thur/Fri PM
Good morning folks! Rainfall totals have already surpassed our forecasted totals, with all of SW NC reporting at least 0.50" of rain from Sunday night through Monday midday, while a vast majority of locations have eclipsed the one inch mark. Several sites have broken into the two inch range, with Andrews, Hogback, and Balsam Grove duking it out to see who will win out as the first round begins to wind down (as of midday Monday).
We'll see scattered showers continue the rest of the afternoon, winding down ever so slightly this evening, however showers are expected to linger through the night into Tuesday. Spotty showers start the day on Tuesday, with coverage becoming widespread after midday, peaking around sunset as a line of thunderstorms cross the region. Coverage gradually declines to isolated coverage by the pre dawn hours on Wednesday and then its a waiting game as to when the front will cross the region. Latest timing puts it moving across our neck of the woods around midday/early afternoon and this will be the trigger for another round of thunderstorms, although this round is likely to be run of the mill pop up showers and thunderstorms. Post frontal we begin to dry out, albeit slowly with a noticeable difference in the air mass not occurring till the evening/late night hours. This sets up Thursday with sunshine and an upper level trough swings through Thursday night, bringing with it colder temps and the possibility for a few light showers. Cooler weather accompanies the passing trough and Friday will be in the 60's for the lower valleys, under more sunshine as high pressure replaces the upper level trough by sunrise on Saturday. For those making weekend plans, thing back to last weekend as the forecast looks like a carbon copy; pure sunshine Saturday, dry airmass, followed by high clouds Sunday and a noticeable uptick in moisture. One more thing to note. Near freezing temps (33°F - 36°F) are possible Thursday night above 4800' and again Friday night for elevations above 4000'; patchy frost is a possibility across the higher elevations both nights.
We'll skip today and focus the timeline from Tuesday through Saturday. Scattered showers will be present as we wake up on Tuesday, although most of the action will take till the afternoon to fully develop. Temps warm to the mid 60's above 5800', while the valleys come close to 80°F as we continue to benefit from strong southerly flow across the region. Dewpoints will continue to be soupy (in the upper 50's - low 60's) and will help expand shower coverage as we move into the afternoon hours, with a line of thunderstorms likely between 4 - 7pm. Most of the region will pick up at least one inch of rain before sunrise on Wednesday, with a handful of locations surpassing the 2.5" mark. Shower activity continues throughout the night but intensities and coverage will drop slightly, holding temps to the mid 50's - low 60's across the region.
Wednesday starts out the day with a mixed bag of isolated showers, low, mid, and high level clouds, and a few rays of sunshine. Temps will warm to the upper 50's - mid 70's depending upon elevation and a front will cross the region sometime around midday, firing up a round of showers and thunderstorms, adding another 0.25 - 0.50" to the bucket. Showers end by the mid afternoon hours and clouds will begin to clear as we approach sunset, with partly cloudy skies overhead by midnight; temps settle into the low - upper 40's across the region.
Thursday through Sunday will be dry except for a round of light showers Thursday night. Mostly sunny skies will take over Thursday and stick around through Saturday (minus the short lived period of cloud cover Thursday night). Temps will be noticeably cooler but not cold as they reach the mid 50's - mid 70's Thursday, upper 40's - upper 60's Friday, and back to the upper 50's - mid 70's Saturday. Forecasted low temps Thursday and Friday nights dip into the low - upper 30's for the higher elevations, while the valleys sit in the upper 30's - mid 40's. This may change as we approach Thursday night, but the chance exists for patchy frost across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday nights.
We'll stop here and circle back on Wednesday, with a better breakdown on latter half of the week and upcoming weekend.