Wet Snow Tonight above 5500'; Chilly Monday
Good morning folks! Clouds will thicken as the day moves along and spotty showers will sweep the area this evening, exiting early Monday morning. NW flow sets up Monday morning and ushers in sunny skies and below normal temps with afternoon highs running 3 - 6 degrees below normal Monday through Wednesday. High pressure eventually takes over Monday night - early Tuesday and winds will calm down with fair weather expected by Tuesday. A second front arrives later in the day Wednesday, however southerly flow ahead of the front will bring clouds to the region early Wednesday, followed by regionwide showers Wednesday late afternoon through the late night hours. Thanksgiving Day features sunny skies and temps roughly 3 - 5 degrees above normal for late November, followed by another round of sunshine Friday and a possible regionwide, moderate - heavy rain event next weekend (still very much up in the air; low confidence probability). All in all, we'll experience three frontal passages over the next seven days, one Sunday evening, a second Wednesday afternoon, and a third sometime next weekend, with no extreme weather expected (near normal temps, moderate rainfall amounts).
Temps Sunday (today) will climb into the upper 40's above 5000' and warm to the low 60's along the valley floor, even with increasing and thickening clouds as the day moves along. Isolated showers are likely to develop before sunset and coverage will expand to scattered around midnight, scaling back to zero coverage before sunrise on Monday. One interesting note is that above 5500' temps will be cold enough tonight for wet snow to fall, however we do not expect any accumulations outside of trace amounts at the highest peaks above 6000'; low 30's above 5500', upper 30's in the valleys.
Monday will be a pleasant late November day with sunshine overhead, NW winds around 5 - 15mph and temps running a handful of degrees below normal, climbing only to the mid - upper 50's in the valleys; low - mid 40's above 5500'. Overnight lows will settle into the upper 20's across the valleys, while the ridgelines run warm, only dipping into the low - mid 30's, all under clear skies with little to no wind.
Tuesday features more sunshine, highs in the upper 50's - low 60's and this fair weather will be short lived as partly cloudy skies develop around sunset, followed by increasing clouds overnight into Wednesday. This uptick in cloud cover will cap overnight lows to the mid - upper 30's across the region.
Cloudy skies and isolated showers along the escarpment will start off the day on Wednesday and shower coverage increases to scattered by midday, peaking to widespread coverage later during the evening hours. All shower activity should be over with after midnight and rainfall totals will be anywhere from 0.25 - 0.75" across SW NC, with higher amounts likely found along the GA and SC state lines. Temps Wednesday hold to the low - upper 50's depending upon elevation, with overnight lows in the low - upper 40's.
Thanksgiving Day is looking gorgeous with sunshine overhead and temps pushing into the mid 60's below 3000', with sunshine likely extending into Friday. Models do not have much confidence past Thursday but signs are pointing to a moderate - heavy rain event next weekend, so stay tuned if you have outdoor plans next weekend.
We'll stop here and circle back Tuesday morning.