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Washout Tuesday; Late Week Frost Potential

Good afternoon folks! It's late in the day on Sunday and after a pleasant weekend we expect showers to develop late tonight and extend throughout the day on Monday. Coverage will be scattered and rainfall amounts light on Monday, however late Monday night into Tuesday early evening is shaping up to be a washout for SW NC. Rainfall totals will reach an inch for the entire region over the 24 hour period, with up to 2 - 3" directly along the escarpment and Great Balsams. The front that is pushing widespread rain across the region on Tuesday will exit to our east overnight into Wednesday, setting up a mostly sunny day on Wednesday. This is when we expect fall weather to settle into the area, holding firm through at least the weekend and our first frost of the season is possible Friday and Saturday nights. All in all, a wet start to the week followed by a gorgeous stretch of fall weather Wednesday into Saturday.

Showers will pop up at any point during the day on Monday and chances for shower development increase as we head toward the evening hours, however totals will be light with most of SW NC holding to a tenth - quarter of an inch. Temps will warm to the low 60's - mid 70's depending upon elevation, which is slightly above normal for late September and overnight lows dip into the upper 40's - upper 50's.

Shower coverage and intensities begin to pick up during the pre dawn hours on Tuesday, becoming widespread by the late morning hours as the front approaches the region. The early - mid afternoon hours keep widespread coverage going across the region and heavy rates are possible with limited thunder activity. Temps only warm to the low 50's above 4500', while the valleys climb to the low - mid 60's; a noticeable change from Monday. Shower activity will begin to wind down by the evening hours, perhaps sooner if the front is quicker than forecasted and cloud cover will take most of the night to clear the region. Temps will dip into the upper 30's - upper 40's depending upon elevation and its possible isolated showers linger along the TN line but for the rest of SW NC, we'll begin to notice clearing skies past midnight.

Wednesday into the weekend is a simple forecast as sunny skies, northerly winds, and cooler temps make up the action for the second half of the week. If you are a fan of fall weather then you'll love this setup with highs only making it to the upper 40's - low 50' above 4500 and holding to the low - mid 60's across the valleys each afternoon. Overnight lows will settle into the low - upper 40's Wednesday night, upper 30's - mid 40's Thursday night and low - upper 30's Friday and Saturday night. It's possible patchy frost develops Friday morning above 4000' and the chance for widespread frost occurs Saturday and Sunday mornings.

We'll stop here and circle back on Tuesday, with an update to the ongoing rain event and a tweak, fine tuning of our forecasted highs and lows for the second half of the week. ENJOY!

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