Washout Sun/Mon; Heavy Rain Tuesday

Good morning folks! Sneak outside before the rain comes this afternoon and make most the most of it because we switch over to a wet pattern starting Sunday, lasting through most of the work week, peaking in coverage and intensities on Tuesday (a change from our previous discussion). Regardless of what track tropical system Fred takes, our region is forecasted to pick anywhere from 5 - 8" of rain today (Saturday) into Friday, with roughly 2 - 4" falling on Tuesday and Tuesday night! Flooding is not a concern at this time but the NWS is certainly watching its potential as we get a better grasp on early next week. The heaviest rain over the 7 day period will fall along and across the Highlands Plateau, with Lake Toxaway in the best spot to pick up 6 - 8" of rain today into Friday. The silver lining to all of this rain and excessive mugginess will be the cooler temps as they drop down to the low 80's Sunday across the valleys, upper 70's Monday, and possibly mid 70's on Tuesday! Temps will slowly moderate the remainder of the week, climbing back to the mid 80's by Thursday or Friday. All of this wet weather is due to a stalled front that should arrive Sunday and linger most of next week, in tandem with a wedge setting up on Monday. Fred's track looks to be west of the region, crossing into northern Alabama sometime Tuesday evening and washing out in Tennessee later on Wednesday. Even if this solution pans out, the continuous supply of high moisture levels out of the Gulf south will be the main reason we see excessive rain Sunday through Thursday.


We'll kick off the timeline on Sunday and showers are expected to develop as soon as the mid - late morning hours and expand in coverage from the escarpment (area in which the mountains drop off to the foothills of the Upstate), covering all of SW NC by the late afternoon hours. Shower intensities will be a mixed bag of light - moderate showers and thunderstorms, but all of SW NC will experience some rain on Sunday and most of the area will pick up 0.50 - 1.5" of rain depending upon location. Temps will manage to climb to the low 80's across the valleys, while the ridgelines reach the upper 60's. Overnight lows dip into the upper 50's - mid 60's depending upon elevation and there will a slight decline in shower coverage as we enter the pre dawn hours.


Monday starts off slow with shower coverage slowly expanding from the escarpment (constant drizzle or moderate rain along the escarpment Sunday into Monday), pushing southwest across the region as the wedge tries to climb up and over the Great Balsams. It seems the wedge will win out but rainfall totals will be impacted by location, with those who live along the Highlands Plateau/Transylvania and Haywood counties picking up 1 - 1.5" of rain, while those who live closer to the Smokies (Bryson City/Cherokee) only manage to squeeze out 0.25 - 0.50" of rain. Temps hold to the upper 70's across the lower elevations and dip to the mid 60's overnight into Tuesday. Shower coverage will wane but never really end as we move through the overnight hours into Tuesday morning.


Tuesday looks like it will be the wettest day of the week with constant moderate - heavy rain across the region as Fred crosses nearby in northern Alabama closer to sunset. All of SW NC will pick up at least 1.5 - 2" of rain, but numerous locations along or near the escarpment will exceed 3 - 4" over the 24 hour period, ending midnight. Temps climb to the mid 70's along the valley floor, while the highest ridgelines push to the mid - upper 60's.


Shower coverage scales back Wednesday but returns to a normal, diurnal pattern as we move from Wednesday into Friday, with more cloud cover than sunshine all three days. Most of the action will occur after midday each afternoon, but another 0.5 - 1" is possible each day as we deal with excessive moisture levels and pop up thunderstorms/heavy downpours. Temps slowly return to the mid 80's by Thursday.


We'll stop here and circle back on Monday morning, with a better look at the end of the work week. If we feel its needed to provide an update, we may release a small email update so be sure to subscribe to our discussion email list to never miss a post!



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