Washout on Sunday; Dry & Windy Monday

Good morning folks! Yesterday's rain event blew away our forecasted totals of 2 - 2.5" on the higher side, with numerous locations across SW NC picking up 2.5", while the higher totals along and near the SC state line ended up tripling these amounts! The top three totals from Wed AM - Fri AM were 6.95" in Rosman, 6.18" in Lake Toxaway, and 5.87" in Highlands, with several five inch reports along the southern end of Macon County. We'll dry out today as the cold front pushes southeast of the area, however this is likely to return tomorrow as a warm front, lifting across the region and bringing with it an increase in clouds and afternoon showers. Sunday's rainfall potential has once again increased since we last spoke, with regionwide forecasted totals now in the 1 - 2" range depending upon storm intensities. A line of storms is expected before midday and coverage will end by the late evening hours, but some of the storms will produce strong winds and heavy downpours, similar to Thursday's event. We dry out by Monday as NW flow sets up across the region and high pressure will dominate the landscape through Wednesday, with a noticeable uptick in moisture levels by Wednesday as we transition back to southerly flow late Tuesday. The models hint at yet another late week rain and possible severe weather event, but we'll only mention regionwide rainfall Thur - Fri at this point in time, circling back Sunday morning with more details. Temps all the while remain above freezing through late next week, minus the short lived window Sunday night as temps dip to the low 30's above 5500'. Afternoon highs do a slight roller coaster, going from the low 70's this weekend to the mid 60's early next week, back to the low 70's Wednesday and down to the low - mid 60's Thursday.


We'll skip today (Friday) and start the discussion timeline on Saturday morning. Mostly sunny skies will be overhead at sunrise and temps start the day in the mid 40's - low 50's. Clouds will slowly fill in as the morning moves along and we'll experience scattered showers out of the south Saturday afternoon, with most of the area picking up anywhere from a 0.25 - 0.50" depending on coverage and intensities. Afternoon highs hit the low 70's even with cloudy skies after midday and overnight lows settle into the mid - upper 50's, with light showers continuing across the region.


Sunday starts the day with scattered light showers peppering the region as the warm front lifts further north and we'll quickly see coverage ramp up to widespread levels by the late morning hours as the cold front approaches from the west. As the front passes overhead a round of heavy, possibly strong to severe storms will moves through the region and this is when we are likely to pick up the bulk of the 1 - 2" that is expected from Sunday morning into Sunday night. Temps will still be able to hit the upper 50's - low 70's depending upon elevation, falling to the low - upper 30's Sunday night under clearing skies, alongside NW winds around 10 - 30mph depending upon elevation.


Monday will keep NW flow across the region before midday, relaxing somewhat as the day moves along but overall it will be sunny and a touch cooler, as temps push into the low 50's - mid 60's across the area. Overnight lows settle into the upper 30's - mid 40's Monday night and we may see a light shower or two after midnight, but this is not a guarantee.


Tuesday and Wednesday remain dry across the area and temps slowly warm as we return to southerly flow, with highs hitting the low 70's Wednesday afternoon. There are likely to be some high clouds overhead Tuesday and Wednesday, so not full sunshine but still very enjoyable.


We'll mention a strong possibility for regionwide rainfall Thursday into Friday but the question now becomes if it will be severe and how much rain. Plan either way for a moderate event with an inch or two possible and we will adjust these totals up or down as we approach the event. Temps are also likely to change, returning to the upper 40's - low 60's Thursday afternoon.


Check back in Sunday around 11am for our next update, with hopefully more information on the upcoming late week rain event.





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