Washout Coming; Soggy Sunday
Good morning folks! The forecast continues along with little adjustment to the previous discussion. We expect a minor scale back in shower coverage today (Thursday) through Saturday, ramping up to regionwide by Sunday. Shower coverage today through Saturday will continue to feature strong pop up thunderstorms capable of dropping 0.50 - 0.75" of rain over a short time frame, alongside damaging winds. Temps remain elevated through Saturday as they reach the upper 80's across the valleys each afternoon, but relief is on the way as shower coverage and cloud cover take over on Sunday; low 80's for the valleys. We may only reach the upper 70's Monday and Tuesday as Tropical Storm Fred migrates northward into the Southeast, providing plenty of moisture that translates into a soaking rain event for all of SW NC; maybe too much of a good thing for the Highlands Plateau. Places like Highlands, Cashiers, and Lake Toxaway will likely pick up 6 - 8 " of rain today through next Wednesday and roughly 3 - 4" of the total amount will fall from Sunday into Tuesday. Past the middle of next week our confidence level drops but the overall pattern suggest a return to muggy conditions with typical pop up showers each afternoon.
We'll start the timeline on Friday with another round of patchy fog for the valleys, quickly giving way to mostly sunny skies before midday. Temps warm to the mid 70's - upper 80's depending upon elevation and by the mid afternoon hours we expect a handful of strong thunderstorms to develop. This shower activity will fizzle out by the late evening hours and overnight lows will settle into the upper 50's - mid 60's once again.
Saturday is a close repeat of Friday with a slight uptick in shower coverage as a front approaches the region. If you need to avoid the rain this weekend while you work outside, Saturday morning is probably your only window as showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by the early - mid afternoon hours. Another round of high temps in the upper 80's on Saturday will be our last above normal day as this stretch comes to an end; overnight lows hold to the upper 50's - mid 60's.
We wraup the weekend on Sunday under cloudy skies, while shower coverage grows from the escarpment to regionwide over the course of the day. Shower activity will persistent throughout the day and although we may not be able to hang outside all day, at least temps will have cooled down to the low 80's across the lower elevations. Showers maintain their widespread coverage and light - moderate rates through the night, with temps settling into the low - mid 60's.
Monday and Tuesday will likely be our coolest days of the week as temps struggle to push past the upper 70's - low 80's each afternoon. Shower coverage and intensities will be at their peak late Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning as Fred migrates nearby or overhead, either way our region is impacted by the surge of moisture northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. It's during this 72 hour period (Sunday AM - tuesday AM) that we expect 3 - 4" of rain to fall across the escarpment, with 1 - 2" for the rest of SW NC.
Past Tuesday our confidence begins to drop so we will circle back Saturday morning with a better look at the heavy rain event slated for early next week. ENJOY!