Warm Up Tues & Wed; Cat Opens Sat!
Good afternoon folks! Mt Mitchell dropped to its lowest point this season with a low of 16°F, also making it the coldest temp for the entire region so far this season. Not much has changed from our previous discussion but we do have a better handle of the timing of the several disturbances and cool downs. We'll enjoy a mixed bag of sunshine and patchy clouds Tuesday, while Wednesday provides us with more sunshine due to a passing front Tuesday that exits before sunrise Wednesday. Temps will warm to above normal levels, running roughly 10 degrees above normal on Wednesday, cooling down slightly on Thursday as a second front crosses the region late in the day. Post frontal airmass moves in Friday with high pressure funneling cooler air into our region through Saturday, holding temps to levels roughly 3 - 5 degrees below normal, all under sunny skies. The front that is slated to move through Thursday should drop a handful of showers across the region, with totals likely reaching 0.10" for most of SW NC (not much to work with). A third front coupled with an upper level trough will reach our area late Sunday and we may see increasing clouds Sunday afternoon, followed by a shot of high elevation snow and valley rain that will carryover into Monday morning. This is not set in stone and likely to fluctuate both in timing and elevation (snow line), so stay tuned as we should have much better handle on this in our next discussion Wednesday afternoon. All in all, a somewhat normal mid November week and the outlook for Thanksgiving week is for temps to be below normal.
Quick update: Cataloochee Ski Area announced this afternoon they are shooting for an opening day of Saturday, Nov 20th after an 18 hour snowmaking session. They should be able to continuously make more snow starting Thursday afternoon, with only a few downtimes (1 - 3 hours long) Friday and Saturday afternoon as temps peak into the upper 30's - low 40's.
We kick off the timeline on Tuesday and we'll lump Wednesday into the mix as well since both days are almost repeats of each other. Sunshine starts the day Tuesday but a passing warm front will cause partly cloudy skies to develop and maybe a stray shower; we expect 99% of the region to remain dry. This front kicks out of the area Tuesday night and sets up Wednesday for full sunshine, with clouds developing shortly after sunset. Temps Tuesday climb to the low 50's above 5000', while the valleys warm to the mid 60's; overnight lows in the mid - upper 30's for the valleys, while the ridgelines sit in the upper 30's - low 40's, all under mostly clear skies. Wednesday brings temps a few degrees higher into the upper 60's, coming close to 70°F in places like Andrews, Bryson City, or Franklin. Partly cloudy skies develop Wednesday night, capping temps to the low - upper 40's.
Thursday will be a nice fall day, even with scattered light rain peppering the area, as temps hold to normal levels, only reaching the low 60's across the valleys. Overnight lows will settle into the low - upper 20's under clearing skies and winds will pick up out of the west around 10 - 20mph. Most of SW NC will pick up a hundredth to a tenth of an inch of rain, so not a big deal but enough to keep any dust at bay for day or two.
Friday and Saturday hit the repeat button yet again as sunny skies sit overhead both days and temps warm to the upper 30's - low 40's above 5000', while the valleys hit the low - mid 50's each afternoon. Friday will feature breezy conditions that will calm down overnight into Saturday, with overnight lows dipping to the mid 20's - low 30's each night under mostly clear skies.
Models point to a better chance for rain and snow Sunday night into Monday but we will only mention it at this time and say its nothing major, more of a nuisance event for those who live above 4500'. This being said, the details are still very much unknown and we recommend circling back to us or your preferred outlet for updates as the week progresses; next discussion comes out afternoon, around 3pm.