Warm, Dry, and Boring through Wednesday
Good morning folks! No substantial or regionwide rain event is on the horizon over the next 4 - 6 days, with our only rain chances occurring Thursday and Friday along the escarpment and even then, shower coverage will be isolated and intensities light. This stretch of dry weather should continue for most of SW NC well into late next week, possibly next weekend, even with two frontal passages in play. This is not unheard of as we enter move deeper into the fall season, which is traditionally our driest part of the year, assuming tropical systems stay out of the area (these can skew the average higher for Sep/Oct). Temps will warm to the low 80's by Monday across the lower elevations and stick to this level through Wednesday, cooling back down to the upper 70's Thursday and Friday. The highest elevations will warm to the mid - upper 60's through Wednesday and flirt with the upper 50's - low 60's by week's end; overnight lows remain above 41 - 43°F Sunday night into Friday night, regardless of elevation. All in all, a fairly boring week lies ahead, but if you need a stretch of dry weather to do house or yard work, this is your week.
We'll kick off the timeline on Monday and keep the discussion short with not much change expected day to day. Temps push to the low 80's in the valleys Monday under mostly sunny skies as high pressure sits overhead, suppressing any chance for shower development. Northwesterly flow will keep a steady, light breeze going through the day and the upper elevations will be pleasant, with temps peaking to the mid - upper 60's above 5000'. Overnight lows settle into the upper 40's - low 50's depending upon elevation, under mostly clear skies.
We hit the repeat button on Tuesday, while Wednesday offers up a slight increase in cloud cover as a backdoor cold front moves in from the northeast. This will help transition overall flow away from the northwest to the southeast, setting the stage for isolated, light showers peppering the escarpment and Highlands Plateau sometime Thursday or Friday. This southeasterly flow will also build a healthy cloud deck along the southern portion of Macon, Jackson, and Haywood counties, including the northern portion of Transylvania county, while the rest of SW NC experiences more sun than clouds. Temps Wednesday reach the upper 60's - low 80's once again, but cool down to the low - mid 60's above 5000' Thursday, while the valleys manage to reach the upper 70's. Overnight lows return to the mid 40's - low 50's Thursday and Friday nights, but remain well above the freezing mark. There is a potential second front Friday into Saturday but the models do not have a good handle on this feature, so for now we are going with a mixed bag of clouds and sun next weekend, with a chance for a light rain event in play.
We'll stop here and circle back Tuesday morning, sometime around 10:00am.