Soupy by Tuesday; Heavy Rain Wed
Good afternoon folks! After a pleasant stretch of dry and sunny days we will make up for it with a stretch of muggy and wet days beginning Tuesday, possibly not winding down till next weekend or the following Monday. Temps will continue to be well above normal, especially overnight lows as they only dip into upper 50's - low 60's, which is typically close to our normal high for mid November. Regionwide rainfall totals will range from 2 - 5" Monday evening through Friday night, with a gradient from 2 - 5" as you go from the TN to SC state lines. All in all, the week ahead is not looking great if you have outdoor plans and the only thing going for us at this point in time is a possible lull Thursday into Friday, but this is not a guarantee.
We'll start out the work and school week with a sunny setup and clouds should begin to fill in as we close out the day, while at the same time the high pressure responsible for the sunshine migrates east. By Monday night enough moisture will be present within the newly developing easterly flow to develop light and spotty showers along the SC state line, up through the Southern Highlands Plateau. We don't expect much to fall overnight into Tuesday, perhaps a tenth - quarter inch at most. Temps Monday warm to the upper 50's - low 70's depending upon elevation and as clouds develop Monday night, overnight lows should hold to the low - upper 50's across the region.
Mostly cloudy skies will be overhead by the mid morning hours on Tuesday, followed by scattered showers as we enter the mid - late afternoon hours. Most of SW NC is likely to experience a passing shower, but the bulk of the action will occur along the escarpment, not ramping up to widespread coverage for SW NC till after midnight. One thing we will notice on Tuesday is an uptick in moisture levels and by the time we wake up on Wednesday it will feel very muggy outside, with soupy conditions likely to stick around through Thursday. Temps Tuesday through Thursday hold to the low 60's - low 70's depending upon elevation each afternoon, while the overnight lows dip into the mid 50's - low 60's. The heaviest rain will occur throughout the day on Wednesday, rolling into the overnight hours and scaling back to scattered coverage Thursday morning. During this 72 hour window we expect 2 - 4" of rain to fall across the region, most of this occurring Wednesday evening and overnight into Thursday. Of note is the annual rainfall to date for Highlands, with only 4.56" needed to overtake 2018 as the top spot for annual rainfall (125.46" in 2018) and its likely we'll see that record fall by next weekend.
Friday into next weekend is not a toss up but the models are having a tough time with Eta, whether it will ride north across the Carolinas or stay south, while at the same time a second front passes through the region. Either way it looks like next weekend is not going to be sunny and the chance for rain sticks around, with the main question being how much rain (heavy with Eta or scattered with the front).
We'll stop here and circle back on Tuesday with a better look at the end of the work and school week. Stay dry!