Sunny Sunday; Heavy Rain Sunday Night

Good morning folks! Scattered light showers will pepper the region this afternoon and fizzle out this evening as the cold front passes through the region overnight into Sunday. Most of SW NC will pick up a quarter inch of rain from this light rain event. High pressure nestles into the region Sunday and this will allow temps to push past normal levels under mostly sunny skies (a change from our previous discussion). Clouds move in Sunday evening and widespread, moderate - heavy rainfall sets up shop late Sunday night, hanging around through the morning hours on Monday. The chance for snow has all but evaporated for our region, unless you find yourself above 5500 - 6000', where light - moderate snow could fall Monday morning as colder air begins to push into the region. Most of SW NC will pick up 1.5 - 2.5" of rain from this event, which is an uptick from our previous discussion. Chilly weather settles into the region as NW flow takes over Monday afternoon, setting up a chilly day on Tuesday under sunny skies. Our next system arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday and there is a decent setup for a Cold Air Damming occurrence beforehand, however it will need to be a strong CAD event to push the colder air up and around the Great Balsams/escarpment to allow wintry precip to fall across our area Tues - Wed. The chance is there for a mixed bag of wintry precip but this is not set in stone and it could end up being a high elevation snow event, with some mixed precip for the valleys. We will defer to our next discussion on Monday to allow the models more time to hone in on the details.


Light precip today fizzles out tonight with overnight lows settling into the upper 30's - low 40's across the region. We'll also notice strong SW winds later today and this evening as the front pushes through the area, gusting to 40mph across the higher elevations above 4500'.


Clearing skies during the pre dawn hours will transition into mostly sunny skies on Sunday and as high pressure moves overhead, temps will warm back to the low 50's - low 60's depending upon elevation. Clouds fill in closer to sunset and showers break out just before midnight, becoming widespread during the pre dawn hours with 1.5 - 2.5" of rain falling across the region before sunrise. Overnight lows dip into the mid 30's - low 40's depending upon elevation.


Cold air moves in quickly for the higher elevations Monday morning (much slower for the valleys) and this will kick rain over to snow above 5600' (give or take a few hundred feet), with a light dusting for our highest peaks across SW NC. Clouds linger in NW flow most of the day with periods of sunshine after midday and temps hold to the mid 30's above 5000', while the valleys warm to the upper 40's. Overnight lows dip into the low - upper 20's across the region with NW winds continuing through the night.


Sunshine Tuesday gives way to another round of rain and possible snow Tuesday night into Wednesday and although details remain scattered this far out in time, we do feel confident that Tuesday will be a sunny, chilly day with highs only making it to the upper 30's - upper 40's depending upon elevation. We'll stop here and circle back Monday morning with a more detailed timeline.

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