Sunny into Friday; Wknd Snow Chances Grow
Good afternoon folks! Winter is certainly here and we'll continue to enjoy this seasonal weather all week with temps peaking on Wednesday to the low - mid 50's across the valleys. Temps generally stay in the mid - upper 40's Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday under sunny skies, allowing dry weather to linger into Friday. All eyes are on the upcoming weekend storm with a growing chance for snow sometime Saturday into Sunday; a focused window of precip closer to sunset Saturday, winding down mid morning Sunday. This is all due to a clipper and they are notorious for speeding up/slowing down with each new model run, so don't focus on the exact timing of snow but instead that snow is likely to fall for all of SW NC, regardless of elevation. Confidence is growing that accumulations will occur and if 100% is a guaranteed lock, I am only at 40 - 60% confidence levels as of Monday afternoon. We should know most of the details by Thursday morning, specifically how much and when the peak window of snow will occur. If this weekend's system flops then the following week can provide another one or two more opportunities for snow as the larger setup is looking positive for snow lovers. This also means temps will remain at or slightly below normal through the remainder of the month, which is great news for the upcoming busiest ski weekend of the year. All in all, boring through Friday with a growing chance for snow Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, dry and chilly weather lingers into the following week.
A high pressure system slides east on Tuesday but we'll continue to enjoy another bluebird day with temps in the low - mid 30's above 5000', while the valleys climb to the low - mid 40's. Clear skies overnight bring temps down into the upper teens for the valleys, while the ridgelines hold to the low - mid 20's as a weak temperature inversion occurs overnight.
Wednesday and Thursday features an approaching upper level trough that will cross the region late Thursday into Friday, setting the table for the weekend's event. Sunny skies and southerly flow Wednesday will push temps to the low - mid 50's across the lower elevations, cooling back down to the mid - upper 40's Thursday as the upper level trough reaches the region; overnight lows dip into the low - upper 20's each night across all of SW NC.
Friday caps off the work and school week with temps reaching the upper 30's - low 50's, followed by overnight lows in the low - upper 20's under increasing clouds as the shortwave approaches the region. A high pressure system to our east early Saturday pumps moisture into the region from the south, while the shortwave develops into a low pressure system and rounds the base of the trough, sharpening overnight into Sunday. This is when we expect snow to breakout across the region, winding down sometime Sunday morning. We'll be light on the details for now and circle back Wednesday around 4 - 6pm to shine more light on this unfolding solution amongst the modeling. Snow or not, little or a lot, plan for a chilly weekend as temps struggle to break out of the upper 30's - low 40's in the valleys.
Enough for now, enjoy the sunshine and normal temps!