Sunny Friday & Saturday; Snow Monday?
Good evening folks! Things are beginning to take shape for early next week among the models, although a split does exist but the end result should roughly be the same. We'll enjoy another day of sunshine Friday and Saturday, which is a slight change from the previous discussion but all eyes remain focused on the Sunday - Monday timeframe as the chance remains for heavy rain Sunday evening, followed by backside NW flow snow Monday morning into Tuesday morning. We are not able to discuss snow totals this far out but generally this will be a light event if snow were to collect outside of the usual NW flow snow locations, with advisory levels possible for the TN line and nearby NW facing ridgelines. After snow winds down late Monday for most of SW NC we'll endure a shot of cold air Tuesday that will keep the high below 40°F for the lower elevations (< 30°F above 3500'), with overnight lows regionwide in the teens for the first time this season. Temps moderate slightly on Wednesday and Thursday but will still be anywhere from 7 - 10 degrees below for early December.
Temps cool down a bit on Friday compared to Thursday, only reaching the low 50's - mid 60's depending upon elevation under more sunshine. Some clouds fill in Friday night as a weak disturbance passes through the region, but moisture should exit the region in time to keep sunny skies going into Saturday. Temps cool down a few degrees on Saturday, climbing to the upper 40's - low 60's and overnight lows for both Friday and Saturday night will settle into the mid 30's - low 40's depending upon elevation; clouds slowly increase Saturday night.
Sunday into Monday will be an active 48 hours with heavy rainfall Sunday evening (give or take a few hours), followed by a changeover to snow Monday morning above 3500' as NW flow becomes established and colder air rushes into the region. Scattered light showers are possible after midday on Sunday, capping temps to the mid 40's - mid 50's across the area. Rainfall becomes widespread and heavy during the evening hours, winding down to isolated showers by the pre dawn hours and during this short window most of SW NC will pick up 1" of rain, while the escarpment collects 1.5 - 2.25". Overnight lows Sunday night dip into the low - upper 30's depending upon elevation, however snowfall is not likely till mid morning on Monday.
The upper level low will gradually lift northeast as the day moves along Monday, helping increase NW flow across the region. This will translate into temps climbing only a few degrees to the low - upper 40's before 10 - 11am, falling after midday; a bit faster above 3000 - 4000' compared to the lower elevations. As with most NW flow snow events precip (snow) coverage will favor the TN line and nearby NW facing ridgelines, while the SC state line experiences a handful of showers at best. This is what we expect on Monday with rain changing over to snow before midday above 3000' and accumulating snow likely during the afternoon hours for the TN line. Light - moderate snow will continue into Tuesday but should scale back to only the TN line before midnight; flurries elsewhere. Temps Monday night bottom out to the mid teens - low 20's and we almost forgot to mention that on Monday NW winds setup shop and hold steady around 10 - 20mph depending upon location, continuing overnight Tuesday.
Sunshine returns Tuesday (NW winds hold steady) and lingers into late next week with temps moderating from the mid 20's - upper 30's on Tuesday to the upper 30's - mid 40's by Thursday. We'll stop here and circle back late Saturday afternoon with another look at the upcoming rain to snow event Sunday into Monday.