Spring Equinox; Dry through Monday
Good afternoon folks! We're halfway through the day on Saturday and although its windy and a touch cooler outside, there is not a cloud in the sky across SW NC and we're loving it. Not much has changed from the previous discussion, with the only noticeable difference being that Tuesday now features mostly cloudy skies as we transition to a southerly flow sooner than expected. Scattered light showers return Tuesday night and fizzle out Wednesday morning, with a brief lull the rest of the day on Wednesday, followed by shower activity ramping back up Thursday morning. Our confidence is low for the end of next week, as some models keep the bulk of the moisture to our northwest but pepper the area with strong thunderstorms, whereas some bring a moderate rain event to the entire region. Either way it seems southerly flow will continue across the region Thursday into next weekend and temps will respond, pushing into the low - mid 70's by week's end.
Side note: The spring equinox is today, having occurred at 5:37am this morning.
This weekend will be cooler but not cold, even though temps will dip into the mid 20's - low 30's Saturday night and low - upper 30's Sunday night. Afternoon highs will reach the low - mid 60's Saturday and mid - upper 60's Sunday, and this big swing from morning low to afternoon high is due to a steady supply of drier air from the east - northeast. Speaking of northeasterly flow, we'll deal with steady NE winds on Saturday around 5 - 15mph, gusting to 30mph across the highest elevations. Clear skies prevail both nights and winds will continue across the higher elevations Sunday, but ease to a light breeze for the lower elevations.
Temps start the day on Monday below freezing for elevations above 3500', but this should be the last freeze for the week as overnight lows steadily warm as we move through the work and school week. Sunshine continues on Monday and the flow shifts a bit to southeasterly and eventually becoming southerly by Tuesday. Temps warm to the mid - upper 60's Monday afternoon for the valleys, while the ridgelines hold to the low 50's. Overnight lows settle into the upper 30's - mid 40's Monday night with increasing clouds after midnight.
Tuesday will temper temps slightly as cloud cover increases but they'll remain comfortable as they reach the low - mid 60's depending upon elevation. Light showers are possible later in the day but the overnight hours look more promising with scattered coverage; temps dip to the mid - upper 40's.
Wednesday through Friday is not set in stone but we do think rain chances return to normal, with scattered coverage ending early Wednesday morning, returning later that evening and possibly lingering across the region through Friday. Moderate totals around 2 - 3" are possible over this three day stretch according to the WPC and although we do not have a firm grasp on the timing for this event, make your plans knowing that rain is likely Wednesday into Friday of next week. Temps will be a silver lining, as they push into the mid- upper 60's Wednesday and climb to the low - mid 70's by Friday!
We'll stop here and circle back Monday morning. Enjoy the dry weekend!