Soggy Weekend; Slightly Cooler
Good afternoon folks! After a round of rain Friday afternoon, we'll experience even more showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday, easing up a bit Monday and Tuesday and then transitioning to sunshine and lower dewpoints Wednesday into Thursday. An upper level trough will work its way through the region this weekend, exiting Monday evening and this, combined with above normal moisture levels and a frontal passage, will spark widespread showers and thunderstorms this weekend. As the front dissipates to our southeast Monday into Tuesday, we'll continue to experience pop up showers each afternoon, but moisture levels will decline as we head into the middle of next week. Sometime Wednesday, we expect NW flow to setup across the area and this sets the stage for mostly sunny skies Wednesday and Thursday, although isolated showers are likely because its still July in SW NC. Temps will go from a few degrees below normal this weekend due to cloudy skies and showers, to several degrees above normal by Thur/Fri.
We'll kickoff the timeline on Saturday and recommend getting any outdoor chores or work done before noon/early afternoon timeframe, before scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. Along the Southern Highlands Plateau/escarpment, this could be as soon as the late morning hours, with coverage extending into the overnight hours for all of SW NC. Temps will only reach the upper 60's above 5000', while the valleys push into the low 80's, all under partly - mostly cloudy skies. Overnight lows settle into the upper 50's - mid 60's depending upon elevation, while scattered showers continue across the region, rolling into sunrise on Sunday.
Sunday will be close to a washout with showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rainfall rates/slow moving, peppering the region throughout the day. Temps will run a degree or two cooler than Saturday and we do not expect much in the way of sunshine, with shower activity continuing into the late evening, scaling back slightly in coverage closer to sunrise on Monday. Overnight lows settle into the upper 50's - low 60's once again. Rainfall totals for the weekend will range from 0.75" on the lower end (regionwide average) to upwards of 3" for the few locations that experience a slow moving, heavy downpour.
Monday and Tuesday feature scattered shower coverage each afternoon, with more sun than clouds on Tuesday as dry air begins to filter into the area from the northwest. Temps return to the low - mid 80's across the lower elevations, while overnight lows cool down to the low 50's - low 60's due to lower moisture levels. Expect rainfall totals to be anywhere from a 0.10 - 0.25" regionwide over the two day period, with many spots not experiencing any rain.
By Wednesday NW flow will be underway and mostly sunny skies will be on tap through at least Thursday, marking the middle of the week as the best time hit the water or spend most of your day outside. Temps do climb higher to the mid - upper 80's in the valleys both days, but with lower dewpoints in play it should offset the increase in temps.
I'll stop here and circle back late Sunday morning with an abbreviated discussion. I'll be on the road most of the day and will not be able to produce a full length discussion. Stay dry out there!