Soggy Saturday; Sunny Sunday
Good morning folks! The warmer temps, stretches of rain and then dry weather, a few cold mornings sprinkled in and of course the increasing pollen, all point to signs that spring is in the air. For us we know its spring when the forecast timeline shifts back and forth with each new discussion and this time is no different. The latest timing for the previously forecasted, three day stretch of showers, has now been condensed to roughly 36 hours, beginning late Friday night, ending Sunday mid morning. Forecasted rainfall amounts have been shaved down slightly as well, with only a half inch expected Fri PM - Sun AM for the majority of SW NC, with the exception of 1 - 1.5" across the Southern Highlands Plateau. All in all, we'll deal with a warmer day today (Friday), scattered showers all day on Saturday (peaking in coverage around 3pm), clearing skies Sunday and then sunshine takes control Monday into Tuesday. The models struggle with Wednesday - Friday of next week, but most of the signs point to showers returning. The biggest differences among the models is how much rain falls and if it the storms will be strong - severe; more on this in our next discussion on Sunday.
Temps will soar to the mid - upper 70's across the region today under mostly sunny - partly cloudy skies. An isolated chance exists for a shower this afternoon but for the most part we will experience another dry day. Temps tonight settle into the upper 40's - mid 50's under increasing clouds, with shower chances holding to isolated till the pre dawn hours.
Shower coverage increases to scattered by the early - mid morning hours on Saturday and intensities should be light - moderate, with peak intensities and coverage occurring around the early afternoon hours. Temps will be held to the mid - upper 50's above 5000', while the valleys push into the upper 60's. Most of SW NC will pick up a half inch of rain, possibly less for central and northern Haywood county, while on the more extreme side, the Highlands - Cashiers - Lake Toxaway area is expected to receive 1 - 1.5" of rain. Shower coverage continues into the evening hours but a gradual decline in coverage and intensities kicks in after midnight, with overnight lows dipping to the mid 40's - low 50's.
A sprinkle or two under partly - mostly cloudy skies is how we'll start the day on Sunday, but sunshine should take over quickly and temps will respond, pushing to the upper 50's - mid 70's depending upon elevation. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 40's Sunday night under clear skies.
Sunshine reigns supreme Monday and Tuesday and with southerly flow on the rise, temps will push even further to the low 60's above 5500', while the valleys warm to the mid - upper 70's. Overnight lows hold to the low - upper 40's each night and we should remain frost/freeze free through the remainder of the week.
We'll stop here as confidence is quite low for the Wed - Fri timeframe and would benefit waiting two more days for the models to come to an agreement. Our next discussion comes out Sunday mid morning.