Heavy Rainfall Tues PM - Thur AM
Minor Update: 11/11/20 9:15am
Quick update as the the models begin to hone in on Eta's track, with a trend that results in a dry weekend for our neck of the woods. The models are now forecasting to take Eta back over northern Florida, moving northeast and away from our region. This coupled with a possible high pressure system to our northwest by the end of the week will result in a sunny weekend and temps will start a downward trend beginning Saturday. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be held to the upper 50's - mid 60's depending upon elevation, with overnight lows in the 40's and we'll likely shave off another 4 - 6 degrees across the board by early next week.
The models also have shifted the bulk of the rainfall to the east, cutting our totals in half. We now expect only 2 - 4" along the escarpment and roughly 1 - 1.5" for the rest of SW NC. This is welcomed news but will also put on hold Highland's run at breaking the annual record. With one and half months left on the year, there is plenty of time to make up the difference and we feel confident Highlands will eventually break its annual rainfall record before December 31, 2020. We'll stop here and return on Thursday with a full update.
Original Post: 11/10/20 3:15pm
Good afternoon folks! Shower coverage will begin to increase along the escarpment late Tuesday night and scattered to widespread showers will continue across the region throughout the day on Wednesday. There may be a break in the action Wednesday afternoon and the heaviest round of rain is expected to occur Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The front should be off to our east sometime Thursday afternoon and drier air will infiltrate the area overnight into Friday. We look to end the week on a sunny note but a dry weekend is not a guarantee at this time, with Saturday morning the only window of time we feel confident will remain dry. Eta's eventual path is causing the models to disagree and the chance remains for it to ride north, bringing with it another round of widespread, heavy rainfall to the region Sunday into Monday. Rainfall amounts will range from 2 - 6" across the region with lower amounts found closer to the TN line, while a pocket of 5 - 6" occurs along the SC state line into the Great Balsams.
Wednesday and Thursday bring us a soaking rainfall, heavy for the Southern Highlands Plateau while the rest of SW NC experiences passing showers and the occasional rumble of thunder. Scattered coverage develops Tuesday night and increases to widespread Wednesday morning, scaling back shortly after midday and picking back up to widespread coverage Wednesday evening. There will be periods of heavy rain, especially for Highlands, Cashiers, Lake Toxaway and Rosman, but for the most part this will be a 60 - 72 hour hour event with moderate rainfall intensities. Rainfall totals for Highlands and the surrounding area will range from 5 - 6" and one or two spots may come close to 7" when its all said and done. Highlands only needs 4.56" of rain to take over the top spot for highest annual rainfall (currently at 120.91"). Temps only push into the low 60's - low 70's each afternoon depending upon elevation, with overnight lows settling into the upper 50's - low 60's Wednesday night and upper 40's - mid 50's Thursday night under clearing skies.
Sunny skies sit overhead Friday and temps warm to the upper 50's - low 70's once again, with overnight lows in the low - upper 40's overnight into Saturday. Speaking of Saturday, for now we are going with mostly sunny skies and isolated pop up showers, followed by scattered to widespread showers late Sunday into Monday. This is likely to change so I will stop here and circle back on Thursday with more details as near the weekend.