Slow to Melt this Week; Rain/Snow Wed

Good morning folks! The past 48 hours have been a blur and overall I think the forecast panned out pretty well. We fell short in the valleys by 1 - 2" (we had 4" at our high end) but hit the nail on the head across the Plateau and northern Transylvania County where 9 - 12" fell. Haywood County as a whole did quite well with 7.5" of snow in Waynesville, however the winner for the event is Lake Toxaway with a whopping 16"!!!


Light snow continues to fall across the TN line and nearby locations, with light - moderate NW flow snow continuing throughout the day, winding down later tonight. For the rest of us we will experience clearing skies and sunshine, however temps will be well below normal as they struggle to climb out of the low 20's above 5000', while the valleys warm to the low - mid 30's. Toss in NW winds around 10 - 20mph and gust up to 35mph and wind chill values will dip below zero at times above 4500'. Any snow that does manage to melt today will refreeze tonight as temps plummet into the low - upper teens under mostly clear skies south of the TN line, while light snow peppers the immediate border into the morning hours on Tuesday.


Tuesday offers up a near normal day as temps push to the mid 30's - mid 40's depending upon elevation under more sunshine. This should be a good melt day for the valleys, however the higher elevations above 4000' will experience very little melt; tough with such high water content snow on the ground. Overnight lows settle into the upper teens - low 20's for the valleys, while the ridgelines sit in the upper 20's- low 30's due to a temperature inversion.


Wednesday brings a round of precip to the region and as of this morning it seems we'll endure another elevation dependent event. Its likely to be a mixed bag event with rain and snow for most everyone at the onset, becoming all rain for the valleys within an hour or two, while the higher elevations above 3800 - 4500' hold onto snow for all or most of the event. This snow line may move up in elevation, but this far out in time it seems that the 4000' line will be a noticeable change between rain and snow. Temps Wednesday warm to the upper 30's - upper 40's depending upon elevation, dropping to the mid 20's - low 30's overnight into Thursday; a cold rain for the valleys, snow higher up.


We are not sure how much will collect above 4000' but light accumulations are possible above 4000' Thursday morning, with rain still falling across the lower elevations. It'll be a chilly day on Thursday as temps hold to the upper 20's - low 40's and precip is expected to end before noon. There is a second shot at wintry precip or at least a mixed bag Friday into Saturday but there is so much model confusion right now we wont touch that with a 39.5' pole. What does look certain is a cooldown to below normal temps starting Friday, with highs in the 20's above 4000' Friday through Sunday, while the valleys sit in the mid - upper 30's each afternoon.


I'll stop here and circle back Wednesday morning (before 9am) with an update on the incoming wintry storm and a look into the weekend. ENJOY!



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