Showers return Wed; Heavy Rain Fri AM

Good morning folks! Not much has changed since our last discussion Saturday morning, although we do have a better handle for the Thursday - Saturday timeframe. Enjoy the dry weather today and Tuesday, because we'll return to our normal spring time setup of daily showers beginning Wednesday, with rainfall totals ramping up to several inches for the Thursday - Saturday timeframe. We are not expecting a prolonged event but instead will experience several rounds of light - moderate precip, with a round of heavy showers sprinkled in for good measure sometime early Friday morning. Temps will continue to climb to above normal levels this week, peaking on Friday to the mid 70's and we'll continue to enjoy above freezing temps tonight through Sunday morning.


Sunshine makes up the action for Monday, although breezy conditions out of the east will continue with steady wind speeds around 10 - 15mph all day. Temps warm to the upper 40's - mid 60's depending upon elevation and settle into the mid 30's - low 40's tonight under increasing cloud cover. We will also notice the dewpoint increase to a more comfortable level later tonight as moisture pushes in from the south and east.


Tuesday will feature more cloud cover than sunshine as moisture continues to ramp up across the region, but not to the point of shower development. Showers should be able to hold off till the late evening hours and only a tenth of an inch will fall overnight into Wednesday morning. Temps Tuesday warm to the upper 40's - low 60's once again and it will feel slightly cooler due to the lack of full sunshine, but this is right around normal for late March. Overnight lows dip into the mid - upper 40's across the region.


Wednesday starts the day with spotty light showers across the region as a warm front lifts north across the area and coverage should scale back to isolated showers after midday, holding to this level of coverage into Thursday morning. Temps warm back to the low 50's - mid 60's depending upon elevation and another tenth - quarter inch of rain is expected from sunrise Wednesday to sunrise Thursday.


Thursday and Friday will feel very spring like as moisture levels soar to above normal levels, alongside temps, with afternoon highs hitting the mid 50's - upper 60's Thursday, pushing even further to the upper 50's - mid 70's on Friday! Isolated showers start the day on Thursday and southerly flow should be well established before midday, with widespread rainfall developing by the early evening hours, ramping up to heavy rainfall for an hour or two during the pre dawn hours. A cold front crosses the region early Friday and we'll pick up anywhere from 1.5 - 3" of rain from sunrise Thursday to the late afternoon hours on Friday, with most of the action occurring before midday on Friday. Overnight lows Thursday night only settle to the low - mid 50's and drop back into the low - upper 40's Friday night post frontal.


The weekend ahead looks dry for now but this could change as the models hint at rainfall returning as early as Sunday afternoon. For now we will go with a sunny Saturday with highs in the low 70's once again, followed by partly cloudy skies Sunday and a chance for rain before sunset; highs in the mid - upper 60's.


We'll stop here and circle back on Wednesday with a better look at the moderate rain event Thur - Fri and the upcoming weekend.

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