Showers Late Wed; Sunny Thur - Sun

Good afternoon folks! Please excuse the delayed post as we continue to juggle responsibilities between our day job and watching over our child who is out of school for a possible Covid exposure; all is fine, just very busy the past 1.5 weeks. The good news is that the models have all but shut down any possibility for the low pressure system to migrate northward, instead keeping it southeast of the region as we head into this weekend. This was a big question mark last time we spoke and once we get past the round of rain late Wednesday into Thursday morning, we'll be smooth sailing all the way into Sunday. An upper level trough will approach the region on Wednesday, sitting overhead sometime Thursday morning, bringing with it a cold front that will result in regionwide showers beginning late Wednesday, wrapping up around sunrise Thursday. Clearing skies take over Thursday morning and then sunshine dominates the landscape Thursday afternoon through Sunday. Temps remain on the warm side of normal as we go from the low - mid 80's Wednesday to the upper 70's Thursday, ramping back up to the low 80's Friday and Saturday and finally peaking on Sunday to the mid 80's (where its likely to stay well into next week). If you need to escape the heat all you need to do is head up to 5500' + where temps will remain below 70°F today (Tuesday) through Sunday.

We'll kick off the timeline on Wednesday under mostly sunny skies with high, thin clouds quickly taking over as we approach midday. The front will enter the picture around the noon hour but take till early afternoon hours to ramp up shower coverage. We'll go from isolated showers Wednesday morning to scattered showers as we approach 4 - 6pm, peaking around 7pm and then slowly scaling back to isolated showers by sunrise on Thursday. Clouds quickly give way to sunshine Thursday morning, perhaps as soon as 8am, followed by a noticeably drier airmass that will make for a very pleasant early fall afternoon. Temps reach the low - mid 80's on Wednesday across the valleys, dropping to the upper 50's Wednesday night, returning to the upper 70's (likely hitting 80°F) Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows Thursday night will be fall-like as they settle into the mid 40's - low 50's depending upon elevation, under clear skies.

The upper level trough overhead Thursday will give way to a flattening upper level ridge on Friday, coupled with a building high pressure system. This maintains sunny skies Friday through Sunday, possibly into Monday (models show a third front moving in Monday or Tuesday of next week). Temps will gradually warm from the low 80's Friday to the mid 80's Sunday, with overnight lows settling into the low - upper 50's each night under mostly clear skies. The higher elevations above 5500' struggle to climb out of the 60's all week and weekend long, possibly hitting 71°F on Monday. Speaking of the higher elevations, it looks like we will begin to see some color change in the next two weeks, with an early October color peak the 1st week of October.

We'll stop here and circle back on Thursday morning around 10:30am. ENJOY!