Showers Fri/Sat; Upper 80's Sunday
Good morning folks! There are some notable changes to the forecast since we last spoke, with Friday and Saturday now featuring a more active setup for showers and thunderstorms. Sunday still looks sunny but this will be short lived as a disturbance swings through the region late Sunday night into Monday, setting the stage for another round of regionwide rainfall. Early next week is not in set in stone as confidence levels drop like a rock past Sunday night, but as of Thursday morning it seems we'll experience a setup that "should" lead to scattered - widespread showers Monday into Tuesday. Temps all the while will continue their climb into the mid - upper 80's by Sunday across the valleys, holding to the upper 80's most of next week with no threat of hitting the low 90's. This is above normal for early August but not terrible, with the average high around 84°F for the lower elevations.
The timeline starts on Friday and we'll begin the day with dense fog across the valleys, giving way to a mixed bag of sun and clouds before midday and perhaps more sunshine than cloud cover after midday. Showers will develop during the mid - late afternoon hours but coverage remains a hair above isolated, mainly impacting the highest ridgelines above 4500'. Shower activity is expected to continue to through the overnight hours, spilling over into Saturday, eventually fizzling out by the late afternoon hours. We don't expect a washout but its likely at least 70% of SW NC will experience a passing shower at some point Friday into Saturday. Temps Friday warm to the upper 60's - low 80's across the region, settling into the mid 50's - low 60's Friday night. Afternoon high temps on Saturday will be a degree or two warmer than Friday, however we'll notice a slight drop in humidity levels as we approach the evening hours, due to a switchover from southerly to northerly flow. Temps Saturday hit the mid 80's and drop to the upper 50's Saturday night for the lower elevations.
Although Sunday will be warm with max temps in the upper 80's across the valleys, at least we can enjoy near normal humidity levels and sunny skies. An isolated shower or two is possible Sunday but the vast majority of the region will remain dry; a great day to hit the water.
Monday brings moisture back to the region as an upper level trough approaches from the west, setting the stage for scattered - widespread showers that may linger into Tuesday. This is a low confidence forecast at this point so we will only mention the possibility for rain and circle back on Saturday with a better look; some models want to keep it dry across the region, but we are leaning toward showers returning. ENJOY!