Shot of Snow Monday; Chilly Tuesday
Good morning folks! Another day and more adjustments to make but this is normal for light snow events in early winter, heck, really anytime we are talking liquid precip amounts under a quarter of an inch. The models are honing in on exact details but at this point we need to make a call and are going with a round of light, spotty snow showers around sunrise Monday, taking till the late morning - early afternoon hours to reach peak intensity and coverage and finally scaling back to light snow along the TN line closer to midnight. Past this light event we still expect sunshine to reign supreme Tuesday into Friday. We are now getting a better look at next weekend and things are trending toward a round of rain sometime late Friday night - midday Saturday; timeline not set in stone.
For Monday, the first round of light snow will be more of a novelty than a nuisance with isolated coverage at best and flurries - light snow being the highest intensities. A dusting is possible for the highest elevations around the pre dawn hours but we do not expect roads to be impacted as the true cold air will take till the late morning hours to arrive. Snow may wane a bit as we move through the mid morning hours but will pick back up in coverage and intensities starting by the late morning hours for the TN line, expanding to a good portion of SW NC by the early afternoon hours. This round will be short lived and not widespread, so don't be let down if you don't see much snow if you live or work south of Franklin, Lake Glenville, Panthertown, and Waynesville. The SNOWCAST Map may not capture the distinct cut offs in accumulations for this event, but much like other NW flow events, we expect a gradient of higher totals along the TN line (4 - 6" in the Smokies) to no accumulations south of the above mentioned locations, with a dusting - half inch possible in valleys like Dillsboro, Bryson City, & Waynesville. Balsam and Soco Gaps will likely pick up an inch, maybe two, and Cowee Mountain will pick up an inch. Temps will only warm to the low 30's above 4500', while the valleys hit 40°F. This will be short lived as cold air rushes into the region around midday, bringing temps below freezing for all of SW NC by sunset. NW flow also brings us strong winds around 10 - 20mph throughout the day, gusting to 35mph along the ridgelines. Overnight into Tuesday the snowfall will wind down, NW wind will continue around 10 - 20mph and temps bottom out to the upper teens - low 20's under clearing skies.
If you are looking for a great setup to photograph a snow covered peak against a bluebird sky then Tuesday morning is your window. Sunshine takes over Tuesday and NW flow gradually weakens as the day progresses, allowing temps to warm to the low 30's - mid 40's across the area. Overnight lows dip into the upper teens for the valleys and low - mid 20's along the ridgelines under clear skies with light winds.
Wednesday through Friday will keep sunny skies overhead and temps eventually warm to the upper 40's - low 60's by Friday, with overnight lows in the low - upper 30's each night.
We'll stop here and circle back on Tuesday with a better look at the following system, scheduled to arrive late Friday or early Saturday. ENJOY!