Scattered Showers Wed & Thur
Good morning folks! The trend is our friend if you are hoping and praying for less, not more rainfall across the region, however we will pay for it with above normal temps and muggy conditions. Wednesday and Thursday keep their rain chances alive, although Thursday will produce slightly less coverage compared to Thursday. By Friday the upper level ridge will begin to flex across the Carolinas and this will be the blockade needed to keep any tropical disturbances out of the region, however southeasterly flow will remain and this will keep muggy conditions alive through at least Monday. We are not saying the forecast is shower free starting Friday but shower coverage will scale back to isolated showers and mainly develop along the highest ridgelines and across the Highlands Plateau. Mostly sunny skies will generally give way to partly cloudy skies later in the day Friday through Sunday, alongside isolated showers and thunderstorms from 3 - 7pm. By Monday a front approaches from the west and is likely to bring a round of rain before sunset, alongside a step down in temps but only to the low - mid 80's, nothing fall like at this point in time.
We'll kick off the timeline on Wednesday and this is likely to be our wettest day of the week as scattered showers and thunderstorms develop, initially along the escarpment and then elsewhere across SW NC after midday. Temps will warm to the upper 80's across the valleys as we content with a mixed bag of sunshine and clouds throughout the day, while the highest ridgelines above 5500' reach the mid 70's. Highlands - Cashiers - Lake Toxaway area will pick up the most rain with totals around 0.25 - 0.50" by sunrise on Thursday. Shower activity will remain active through the night as southeasterly flow ramps up across the region, with overnight lows settling into the upper 50's - mid 60's.
Some dry air begins to wrap into the region on Thursday so we'll experience a touch more sunshine compared to Thursday and this may lead to shower coverage scaling back slightly, but this also will lead to stronger thunderstorms. This trade off is not the worst deal but some folks will experience a passing downpour so be sure to check the radar as you head outdoors on Thursday. Temps hold to the mid - upper 80's on Thursday across the valleys, with overnight lows in the mid 50's - low 60's depending upon elevation; showers fizzle out by 7 - 9pm.
Friday through Sunday offers up mostly sunny skies before 1 - 3pm, followed by building clouds (partly cloudy skies) and then a handful of showers or thunderstorms developing from 3 - 7pm each afternoon. Temps soar to the upper 80's once again each day and for those going to the Greening Up the Mountains Festival in Sylva on Saturday, it may feel like the low 90's in the more paved downtown area. Overnight lows settle into the upper 50's - mid 60's each night under partly cloudy skies and alongside valley fog for locations closer to bodies of water.
Early next week is not set in stone but the models point to a frontal passage late Monday and this should result in a round of rain sometime Monday afternoon, with temps cooling down to the mid 80's. We'll stop here and circle back on Thursday with a better look at the weekend and start to next week. STAY DRY!