Scattered Showers Thur; Thunderstorms Fri

Good afternoon folks! We've had some gorgeous spring days since this past Saturday and today is no different as valleys temps soar to the upper 70's - low 80's across SW NC. Dry weather will prevail through the late evening hours and the chance for showers return after midnight, but coverage will be confined to the N GA and SC state lines with isolated activity at best. The frontal passage on Thursday has been delayed and shower coverage will take till the early afternoon hours to ramp up to scattered coverage, with most of the action holding off till Friday as the front is a bit starved for instability and moisture. The upper level pattern becomes favorable Friday and although coverage remains roughly the same, we'll swap out light - moderate showers for strong thunderstorms. A second warm front swings through Saturday morning, followed by a cold front later in the day. This will keep shower activity going across the region, with coverage fizzling out Saturday night and setup up a sunny end to the weekend. Sunshine and dry weather should carry over into Monday and part of the day on Tuesday, interrupted by a cold front that is likely to bring us a round of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning; details remain fuzzy till at least the Sunday discussion. Temps all the while cool down to near normal levels (upper 60's - low 70's) for the lower elevations Thursday through Saturday, rebounding to the mid 70's Sunday through Tuesday. Overnight lows remain above freezing regionwide through at least Wednesday morning of next week. This being said, the Climate Prediction Center's 8 - 10 day outlook as our region below normal for temperatures and slightly above for precipitation, so a cool down is likely for the middle of the month.


We'll start the discussion timeline at sunrise on Thursday. Most of the region will be under mostly cloudy skies by midday and temps will hold to the low 70's across the valleys, while the ridgelines sit in the upper 50's. Isolated shower chances start the day and coverage expands to scattered by the early afternoon hours, with light - moderate rain intensities and rainfall totals around a 0.10 - 0.50" across the region by sunrise on Friday. Overnight lows settle into the upper 40's - low 50's across the region and coverage will scale back to isolated during the pre dawn hours.


The upper level pattern features divergence, increasing instability levels, and an uptick in moisture levels on Friday, all enough to kick off heavy showers and strong thunderstorms. As of today it seems most of the action will occur from the late morning - mid afternoon hours, with scattered coverage and rainfall totals hit and miss due to the pop up nature of thunderstorms; another 0.10 - 0.75" possible for those who experience rain. Temps warm back to the upper 50's - low 70's and if enough sun pokes through in the valleys, temps may push to the mid - upper 70's but this will also help fire up thunderstorms. Overnight lows dip into the upper 40's - mid 50's once again with coverage dropping down to isolated by the late evening hours and holding to this level of coverage through sunrise.


Saturday starts the day with a mixed bag of clouds and sun, filling in quickly with more clouds as a warm front comes up from the south, followed by a cold front later in the day. This will lead to scattered showers, mainly after midday and temps cooling down slightly to the mid 50's - low 70's depending upon elevation. After the cold front passes through Saturday evening, coverage will slowly scale back to zero as we approach sunrise. Temps dip into the low 40's - low 50's depending upon elevation.


Sunday starts the day sunny and will remain that way, with dry weather extending into Tuesday. Temps warm to the mid 70's Sunday through Tuesday and its possible we hit the upper 70's Tuesday ahead of the incoming front. We'll stop here and circle back Friday morning closer to 11am with a new discussion.

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