Regionwide Rainfall Friday; Warm this Wknd

Good afternoon folks! Showers are sliding east-northeast across the Mississippi Valley and heading our way as of Wednesday afternoon and we expect scattered coverage to develop by Thursday morning, becoming widespread late Thursday evening and slowly scaling back late Friday afternoon. This will make for a cooler than normal day on Thursday, a near normal day on Friday, followed by a noticeable bump in temps this weekend as SW flow ramps up across the region. Rainfall totals will average around 0.75" for most of SW NC from Thursday afternoon into Friday evening, with higher totals around 1 - 2" along and near the escarpment. The weekend looks promising with only isolated, pop up showers each afternoon as the models hold back the next round of rain till early next week. Monday should be dry and sunny and a front is expected to cross the region sometime Tuesday, bringing with it region wide rainfall that will exit late Wednesday.


As we mentioned in our previous discussion we expect Thursday to be cloudy but the trend since Monday has been to bring down the afternoon high, from the upper 60's we previously forecasted to the low - mid 60's across the lower elevations. Above 4500' temps will hold to the mid - upper 50's and overall it will be a gloomy-ish fall like day, with shower activity taking till the early - mid afternoon hours to really ramp up across the region. Coverage expands overnight to widespread but intensities will be light - moderate the entire time, translating to totals around a half inch Thursday morning into the pre dawn hours on Friday.

Friday is shaping up to be a washout and the only silver lining is that rainfall rates will continue to be light - moderate for most of the event, with a few heavy showers during the early afternoon hours. Most of the region will pick up another 0.50" of rain, pushing totals to 0.75" on average across SW NC, while the escarpment and towns like Highlands, Cashiers, Sapphire Valley, and Lake Toxaway pick up a total of 1 - 2". Temps will warm to the upper 60's, perhaps right at 70°F for the valleys and the upper elevations will level out to the low 60's, falling back to the low - upper 50's overnight for all of SW NC. Shower coverage scales back drastically as we head into the late afternoon hours and only isolated showers will remain as we move into the overnight hours.


The weekend should be pleasant with temps warming to the mid - upper 70's across the lower elevations each afternoon (3 - 5 degrees above normal) under a mix of sun and clouds, alongside isolated showers after midday. Overnight lows settle into the upper 50's each night for the lower elevations. Above 5000' temps will be a touch cooler, only hitting the low - mid 60's, with lows each night in the low - mid 50's.


Monday will be sunny, still a touch warm with temps in the mid - upper 70's and Tuesday will be slightly cooler as clouds build ahead of the approaching front. We'll stop here and circle back on Friday with a better look at early next week and perhaps a more defined timeline for the frontal passage Tuesday into Wednesday. Stay dry out there!

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