Regionwide Rain Mon/Tues; Comfortable Wed
Good morning folks! Terribly sorry for not posting a discussion yesterday. Our day long trip turned into a typical mess with numerous severe thunderstorms/standstill traffic, not providing me any time to review the models and package a forecast discussion. We'll experience another round of showers today and Tuesday as an upper level trough swings through the region, kicking out by Wednesday with a transition from southerly to northwesterly flow. This transition will usher in dry air and provide us with more sunshine than cloud cover, while at the same time shower coverage shrinks slightly from widespread today and Tuesday to scattered coverage Wednesday through Friday. We are still on track for a sunny-ish weekend, however temps will be much warmer than today (Monday) as they reach the mid - upper 80's by Friday and Saturday. Most of SW NC will experience rain today and Tuesday with rainfall totals around 1 - 1.5" for the region by Wednesday morning, with a handful of locations hitting the 3" mark as heavy downpours are likely Tuesday afternoon.
We'll start the timeline on Tuesday and we'll continue to deal with a slow moving upper level trough, coupled with southerly flow that will spark a round of showers before noon and again around the mid - late afternoon hours. Shower coverage will extend through the overnight hours, fizzling out by the pre dawn hours on Wednesday. Temps will be one silver lining to all of this rain as they hold to the mid - upper 70's across the lower elevations, with overnight lows settling into the upper 50's - low 60's.
Wednesday will be our pattern shift day as we lose the upper level trough and shift from a southerly to northwesterly flow. This will be a welcomed change as we enjoy lower dewpoints, reduced shower coverage, and slightly more sunshine compared to Tuesday. Showers will pop up later in the day but intensities will be lighter than Tuesday and rainfall totals will be under a half inch for most of SW NC. Temps warm to the low 80's across the valleys, while the ridgelines above 5000' climb to the upper 60's. Overnight lows settle back into the mid 50's - low 60's depending upon elevation, with only a shower or two developing past midnight.
Thursday into Saturday features a continuation of Wednesday's weather, with pop up showers each afternoon after a partly cloudy - mostly sunny start and temps warming from the mid 80's Thursday to the mid - upper 80's Friday and Saturday. Rain chances are expected to decrease with each passing day, very slowly mind you, but enough to keep those water plans for the weekend.
We'll stop here and circle back Wednesday mid afternoon with a new discussion, going into more detail for the upcoming weekend. Stay dry!