Rainy Saturday; Sunny Sunday - Wednesday
Good morning folks! Light and isolated showers are peppering the region this morning and will continue to do so the remainder of the day (Friday), with coverage increasing as we move through the overnight hours, peaking midday Saturday. Shower activity will wind down Saturday afternoon and evening, with sunny skies taking over Sunday and continuing the remainder of the work and school week, likely ending Thursday afternoon or Friday as cloud cover begins to build in advance of our next rainmaker. Rainfall amounts today will average out to a tenth - quarter inch across the area, increasing to 0.50 - 1" on Saturday, coupled with a chance for a handful of thunderstorms! Although the pattern over the next two weeks doesn't look conducive for wintry weather, we can always hope that thunder in winter means snow two weeks later. Temps normally are in the low - mid 50's around the middle of December for the valleys and unfortunately it looks like Sunday will be our only normal day over the next 7 days, as temps hit the upper 60's Saturday, mid 50's Sunday, climbing back to the upper 60's by Tuesday. Looks like Sunday night will be the last night local slopes will be able to make snow as temps sit in the mid - upper 30's above 4000' starting Monday night, remaining above this level through next weekend (12/19). All of this sunshine is due to high pressure sitting overhead most of next week, however this eventually exits to the east and a frontal passage is showing up on the models for next Fri - Sat, so fingers crossed this holds so we can pick up another round of rain.
Speaking of more rain, Highlands needs 3.33" as of noon today (12/10) to hit 100" on the year. We will likely pick up 1.10" between today and tomorrow, leaving roughly 2.25" needed to hit 100" on the year, which would make it 4 years in a row at or above 100" (last year was the record year at 132.50"). Do you think we reach the 100" milestone?
The timeline kicks off on Saturday and we'll start the day with scattered showers across the region at sunrise, with the front just hours away. Shower coverage and intensity will peak around 11am - 1pm as the front reaches our region, coupled with a thunderstorm or two and some strong westerly winds. Post frontal passage we'll experience spotty shower coverage and all precip will come to an end an hour or two before or after sunset; lingering the longest for those who live along the TN line. Temps reach the upper 60's in the valleys, while the ridgelines peak to the mid 50's earlier in the day as cold air advection kicks in sooner across the higher elevations. Clear skies sit overhead Saturday night and NW winds around 10mph remain steady, holding temps to the low - upper 20's depending upon elevation.
Sunday kicks off the long stretch of sunshine with sunny skies overhead and temps right around normal as they climb to the low 40's above 4500', mid 50's along the valley floor. Westerly winds will diminish as the day moves along, setting the stage for a possible temperature inversion Sunday night. Clear skies and little no wind Sunday night should allow temps in the valleys to hit the low - mid 20's, while the ridgelines hold to the low 30's.
Monday through Wednesday will be sunny and temps warm from the upper 50's - low 60's Monday to the upper 60's Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows bottom out to the low - mid 30's across the valley floor Monday and Tuesday night, with temps in the upper 30's above 4000' as radiational cooling remains strong under high pressure overhead. Temps should level out to the upper 30's - low 40's Wednesday night as the high pressure moves east and moisture increases across the area.
Cloud cover may build on Thursday, with possible rain Friday or Saturday of next week, but none of this is set in stone and likely to change. We'll stop here and circle back Sunday morning before 10am. ENJOY!