Rain Saturday; High Clouds Sunday
Good afternoon folks! We're halfway through the day on Thursday and enjoying this warm and dry weather while it last. We expect more sunshine on Friday to round out the work and school week on a pleasant note, but this will be quickly followed by a light rain event that will develop during the morning hours on Saturday, peak just before sunset and fade away overnight into Sunday. The models are beginning to hone in on a solution for the Sunday - Monday timeframe and as it stands today, we expect Sunday to be an in between day with high clouds overhead and temps closer to normal. Light precip will begin to develop late Sunday night, likely falling as snow or some form of wintry precip across the higher elevations and a cold rain for the lower elevations. Where this snow line eventually settles is the biggest question at the moment as this setup is not a NW flow snowfall, but more of an overrunning event and with temps not very cold/deep ahead of the low pressure system, its likely only the highest elevations experience wintry precip Sunday into Monday. A safe bet would be anything above 5000' but this could inch down a a good bit and we won't know more till we're 36 - 48 hours out from the event, so we'll hold off on timing, snow levels, and amounts till our next discussion on Saturday. You would think that would be it, but no, the models also show a third event for the middle of next week that will also bring wintry precip our way.
With the high pressure system and upper level ridge still impacting the region on Friday, we'll enjoy another sunny day and temps warming to the low 50's - low 60's once again. Overnight lows will be capped to the mid 30's - low 40's depending upon elevation as clouds build across the region.
We start the day on Saturday with clouds overhead and light rain will begin to fall as soon as the late morning hours for the more southwestern portions of the region, filling in as the days moves along to all of SW NC. Coverage and intensities will peak during the mid - late afternoon hours and coverage will quickly scale back to almost zero before midnight, with clouds lingering the rest of the night and into Sunday morning. Most of SW NC will pick up a quarter - half inch of rain and temps will be held to the upper 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation. As the front exits the area overnight into Sunday, temps will be able to settle into the upper 30's - mid 40's across with an uptick in westerly winds.
Sunday will be quiet as high clouds stream overhead and temps hold to the mid 40's above 4500', while the valleys warm back to the mid 50's. Light precip will develop overnight into Monday, falling as rain below 5000' and snow above that line. Precip will continue into the morning hours on Monday, ending sometime during the early afternoon hours. The snow line may go up slightly during the day but should crash on the backend as colder air wraps around the departing low; plan for a daily high before 2pm. Overnight lows Sunday night bottom out to the upper 20's - mid 30's depending upon elevation and only warm to the mid 30's - mid 40's on Monday under clearing skies and increasing westerly winds.
We'll stop here and circle back Saturday morning with more detail and weigh whether or not a SNOWCAST map is needed for this event.