Rain Mon & Tues; HOT Wed & Thur
Good morning folks! We round out the weekend today with a mix of pop up showers and sunshine, followed by regionwide rainfall Monday and Tuesday. A backdoor front will swing into the region early Tuesday and before it arrives, moisture levels will jump across the region, setting the stage for a muggy and soggy start to the work week. The Great Balsams will be the focus for the front (for our region) and this will translate to the heaviest rainfall and highest totals near and along the Jackson/Haywood county line. The front eventually migrates south of our area but almost dissipates as it does, with NW flow and high pressure filling in behind the front. This sets the stage for a sunny Wednesday and Thursday but temps will skyrocket to the low 90's across the lower elevations. Late next week shows a possible second front but the models are not as clear as to how it will impact our region; shower chances are likely to return (unsure about coverage and totals). All in all, a typical late July week for our area with welcomed rainfall to start the week, unwelcomed temps during the middle of the week, and likely a normal end with daily afternoon showers.
We'll start the timeline on Monday with showers developing before midday and continuing in pop up fashion the rest of the afternoon. Flow will be out of the west/northwest so storms should be moving at a healthy clip. Rainfall totals look reasonable with hit and miss coverage, ranging from a tenth of an inch up to an inch in the heavier downpours. Temps warm to the low 70's - mid 80's depending upon elevation with more cloud cover than sunshine and overnight lows will settle into the upper 50's - mid 60's. Shower coverage will not end when the sun sets, it will continue overnight into Tuesday as the front approaches from the north.
As the front approaches from the north (backdoor) Tuesday morning it will meet the Great Balsams (mountain range dividing Jackson/Haywood/Transylvania counties; southern portion of Parkway) and this will help enhance rainfall rates and coverage. For those living in Waynesville, Balsam, Cruso, Sylva, near Panthertown and the southeastern portion of the Highlands Plateau, you will pick up the highest totals around one inch, with a quarter - half inch likely for the rest of SW NC. The driest portion of the region will be locations that live near or along the N GA line. Temps Tuesday will only make it to the upper 60's - low 80's depending upon elevation; relish this as temps jump almost 10 degrees on Wednesday. The front is likely to migrate south of the region overnight, allowing clouds to clear the area and temps dip to the upper 50's - mid 60's.
Wednesday and Thursday feature sunny skies and temps soaring to the low 90's across the valleys, while the ridgelines above 5000' hold to the mid - upper 70's. Overnight lows will settle into the mid 50's- mid 60's depending upon elevation, under clear skies Wednesday night and partly cloudy skies Thursday night.
Shower chances should increase as we reach Friday, but we'll stop here and circle back on Tuesday with more details and a look at the upcoming weekend. STAY DRY!