Rain Amounts Increase; Washout Sat Night

Good morning folks! We're back to a heavy rain event on the models for the weekend and the only silver lining we have for you is that the bulk of the rain will fall overnight into Sunday morning. We'll still endure a wet Saturday and totals are higher than our previous discussion, but the timeline still looks roughly the same with event winding down Sunday night, followed by spotty pop up showers Monday. The Southern Highlands Plateau and Great Balsams could end up with 5 - 6" of rain spanning Friday morning into Monday morning, with the rest of SW NC likely picking up 2 - 3" (a decline in totals as you move away from the SC state line and go toward the TN line). Temps will continue to level off to the upper 60's - low 70's Saturday and Sunday, followed by a short warm up Monday and Tuesday as they climb to the mid 70's. A front moves through early Tuesday morning, paving the way for sunshine Tuesday through Thursday. Temps will return to normal Wednesday, possibly turning colder by week's end with a second frontal passage.


We'll start the discussion timeline on Saturday morning, after a quarter - half of rain has fallen across the escarpment overnight, with roughly a tenth - quarter inch across the rest of SW NC. Scattered showers continue across the region before noon, becoming widespread as the day moves along and with consistent shower activity temps will only make it to the upper 50's - upper 60's depending upon elevation. Another half inch of rain is a good bet for all of SW NC, perhaps 0.75 - 1" along the escarpment as we near sunset. Overnight into Sunday is when the heaviest of the rain will fall with 3 - 4" falling along the escarpment, so if you have plans to drive through Highlands - Lake Toxaway Saturday night prepare for heavy rains that wont let up till Sunday morning. An inch up to 1.5" is possible for the interior portion of SW NC and overnight lows will dip to the mid 50's - low 60's depending upon elevation.


A dry slot begins to move in Sunday but enough moisture will keep scattered showers going throughout the day, ramping back up to widespread for a handful of hours Sunday evening, winding down after midnight to only spotty showers. Cloudy skies, on and off rain throughout the day, and high dewpoints will hold temps to the upper 60's - low 70's across the valleys, cooling off to the low 60's once again overnight into Monday.


Monday will be under southerly flow and with enough moisture in the air pop up showers are likely, especially later in the day as the front approaches the region. We'll dry out rather quickly overnight into Tuesday as dry air rushes into the region on the heels of the departing front, setting up sunshine for Tuesday. Temps warm to the mid 70's both days but cool down to the upper 60's - low 70's for Wednesday and Thursday.


We'll stop here and circle back on Sunday with a better look at when exactly we'll dry out and also a peek into late week to see just how cold we'll get after the second frontal passage. Stay dry this weekend!

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