Quiet through Wed; Skiff of Snow Mon
Good morning folks! We have a chilly day on tap (Saturday) with highs running roughly 5 - 8 degrees below normal depending upon elevation, but at least its sunny and the wind is not too strong across the valleys; not so above 4500' with NW winds around 15mph. Some light snow and sleet fell this morning across the highest ridgelines along the TN line, with trace amounts reported and plenty of rime ice. Sunshine will continue into Sunday and a weak front swings through the region Sunday night, giving way to NW flow on Monday that will lead to another round of NW flow snow for the TN line and nearby NW facing ridgelines above 5000'; a skiff to an inch is possible in the favored locations. Winds relax later in the day on Monday and even though light snow will fall along the TN line, the rest of SW NC will experience sunny skies with temps running 4 - 6 degrees colder than Sunday and roughly 10 degrees below normal for mid November. We'll warm up nicely Tuesday and Wednesday as temps push into the mid - upper 60's across the valleys, with overnight lows in the 40's. A weak cold front swings through sometime Thursday (timeline still up in the air) and it may bring a round of light rain to the region, with backend NW flow snow (also light) early Friday morning. Friday into next weekend should be dry but cooler as temps struggle to climb out of the low - mid 50's across the lower elevations.
We'll kick the timeline off Sunday morning with temps in the low - mid 20's across the valleys, while the ridgelines above 4500' sit in the upper 20's - mid 30's due to a temperature inversion. Sunshine will bring temps to the low 40's above 5000', while the rest of us across the lower elevations warm to the upper 50's; westerly winds around 15mph after midday. Some clouds develop Sunday night as the weak cold front moves overhead, with light snow developing closer to sunrise for the TN line. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 20's depending upon elevation and westerly winds pick up to 25mph across the highest ridgelines.
Light snow along the TN line starts the day Monday, while the remaining 99% of SW NC enjoys sunny skies, although NW winds will maintain their speeds around 10 - 20mph, calming down by the early - mid afternoon hours. Snowfall along the TN line should end by the early afternoon hours and a skiff of snow is possible in the favored areas like Cataloochee Divide, Great Smoky Mountains, Unicoi Mountains, Plott Balsams, and maybe the northern edge of the Great Balsams. Temps warm to the mid 30's above 5500', while the valleys push into the low 50's, which is roughly 8 - 10 degrees below normal for mid November. Overnight lows drop back into the low - upper 20's.
Tuesday and Wednesday are almost repeats of each other with daily highs being the only difference as temps climb to the mid 60's Tuesday and upper 60's Wednesday, both days under sunny skies. Overnight lows settle into the upper 30's - mid 40's each night for the valleys, all under mostly clear skies.
A late week frontal passage shows up on the models but the timing is not set in stone and as of today, it seems the front crosses the region sometime Thursday afternoon. A round of light rain is possible but even this is a stretch so it could very well be a round of passing clouds, followed by cooler temps to round out the work and school week. Temps reach the low - mid 60's Thursday as SW flow ahead of the front keeps temps near normal, but they'll drop to the low - mid 50's Friday and next Saturday.
We'll stop here and circle back Monday early afternoon with a better look at the Thursday frontal passage and temperature drop going into next weekend. ENJOY!