Picture Perfect Wed & Thur
Good morning folks! It was a wet commute to work this morning but it sure is nice to have rain falling across the entire region. Since Saturday evening, we have picked up on average 1.5" of rain across SW NC, with numerous locations north of 3" but alas, no 4 - 5" totals to report (our higher end forecasted amounts). The front is sweeping the region as we type this discussion and we'll end today (Tuesday) with clearing skies, noticeably cooler temps, and a drier airmass setting up shop across the Southeast. Wednesday and Thursday will be picture perfect for late June, with sunny skies overhead, low dewpoints, and temps running a few degrees below normal. High pressure eventually migrates further east as we approach the weekend and in tandem with a developing ridge to our west, moisture will return to the region on southeasterly flow beginning Friday. If you live along or near the Southern Highlands Plateau (Highlands - Cashiers - Lake Toxaway) then pop up showers and thunderstorms are a good bet Friday and Saturday, whereas the interior valley towns (Franklin - Bryson City - Sylva - Waynesville) will see a mixed bag of clouds and sun, with the occasional shower. By the end of the weekend and into early next week we should see a regionwide pop up shower setup take over (typical summertime regime), with most of the action occurring from 1 - 4pm and then fizzling out as we approach sunset.
We'll kick off the timeline on Tuesday evening, with a noticeable change from muggy to cool and comfortable as NW flow takes over, ushering in lower dewpoints and clearing skies. Temps will bottom out to the upper 40's above 5000', while the valleys dip into the mid 50's.
Wednesday and Thursday both offer up full sunshine, however a few clouds may develop Thursday and the only chance for rain exists along the highest ridgelines such as the Great Smokies, Great Balsams, and perhaps Cowee or Unicoi Mountains, but even in these locations rainfall will a sprinkle or a short lived shower at best. Temps warm to the mid 60's above 5500' each afternoon, while the valleys push into the low 80's, which for late June is a treat. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 50's each night under partly cloudy skies.
This is SW NC and moisture will always find a way back home and Friday marks the return as southeasterly flow sets up shop across the Carolinas. This will lead to a handful of pop up showers for the escarpment, while the rest of the region deals with mostly sunny - partly cloudy skies. Its possible a shower or two develops across the interior valley towns but the chance is fairly low on Friday, increasing slightly on Saturday. Temps for both Friday and Saturday warm to the upper 60's - mid 80's depending upon elevation and although moisture returns it will not be as muggy as Monday or today.
Although we are spared excessively muggy conditions Friday and Saturday, the latter half of the weekend is not looking so fortunate, with moisture levels continuing to rise as we move into early next week. Scattered pop up showers and thunderstorms make up most of the action on Sunday, with a dry start and most of the rain falling during the mid afternoon hours, ending before sunset. Temps are likely to hold to the low 80's due to increase cloud cover (partly sunny).
The models also show a cold front reaching the region sometime Monday, translating to another round of regionwide showers. We'll stop here and circle back on Thursday with a better look at the weekend. ENJOY!