Noticeably Warmer this Week; Rain Thursday

Good afternoon folks! I apologize for not posting a discussion Sunday like I previously mentioned I would. The morning snow reports and getting out to enjoy it simply ate up too much of my time. But alas, here we are Monday afternoon and the regionwide snowfall is behind us but before we look at the week ahead, let's do a quick dive into the snow totals across the region. The highest totals were out of the southern portion of Jackson County with a whopping 7.5" on Bear Mountain, alongside numerous reports of 5 - 6" from Highlands over to the southern end of the Great Balsams. Overall, our SNOWCAST map held up fairly well minus the short sided call for 2 - 3" in Cashiers and Highlands and the surprising 3 - 5" that fell in just a few hours across the Upstate of SC (no one called that one).


Looking ahead we expect a nice warmup this week with temps hitting the upper 30's - low 50's this afternoon under mostly sunny skies, followed by even warmer temps on Tuesday and Wednesday as they climb to the mid 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation. Clouds develop late tonight and some light drizzle is possible before sunrise, capping temps to the low - mid 30's across the region; freezing rain possible above 5500'.


Tuesday features a cloudy start with sunshine taking over and temps warming to the mid 50's across the lower elevations. Clouds return after sunset and build throughout the night with temps bottoming out to the low - upper 30's across the region.


Wednesday brings with it a shot of light rain before midday and mostly cloudy skies the remainder of the day, however southerly flow will keep temps to the low - mid 40's above 4500' and mid 50's in the valleys. Isolated showers return late Wednesday night and temps will once again be above freezing across the region, with lows in the upper 30's - low 40's.


Thursday is our last day of confidence as the models begin to split from Friday through Sunday with varying solutions and for now we will go with a middle of the road approach until our next discussion on Wednesday. Plan for rain on Thursday with a half inch likely for all of SW NC, perhaps more along the southern portion near the N GA and SC state lines due to upsloping. Temps warm to the low 40's - mid 50's once again and rain will fall most of the day, however peak coverage looks to occur from mid - late afternoon hours into the late evening hours, with shower activity rolling into the morning hours on Friday as the front pushes across the region.


Showers may continue into Friday morning if the GFS is to be believed or things could dry up according to the Euro model and because of this split, we will mention the possibility for rain on Friday (not much, perhaps a tenth - quarter of an inch) and temps slightly cooler as they hit the upper 30's - low 50's.


We'll stop here and circle back Wednesday morning and by then we should have a firm grasp for the Fri - Sun timeline and a sneak peak into early next week, as the models show some cold air intrusion.

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