Much Needed Rain Returns Mon - Thur

Good morning folks! Thursday night's rainfall fell short of our forecasted totals, with a tenth - quarter inch of rain falling across the region, while the highest total was out of Unaka at 0.36". We'll remain dry today (Saturday) and Sunday, with showers returning as early as Sunday evening for the escarpment, but likely the pre dawn hours for all of SW NC. High pressure sits overhead and will slide east on Sunday, setting the stage for several disturbances to swing through next week, with a noticeable uptick in moisture levels beginning Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers and a slight chance for thunderstorms will move through on Monday, with coverage continuing through the night into Tuesday. Shower activity is expected to pick back up later in the day Tuesday and spill into the overnight hours, with a possible lull on Wednesday after a cold front crosses the region. Late next week looks promising for a regionwide rain event but this is not set in stone and details are likely to change related to timing and forecasted amounts, but the stage looks set for a late week rain event as a stronger disturbance compared to Tuesday is showing up on the models. We'll stop there as our crystal ball becomes hazy past four days and although the overall setup looks conducive for continuing showers Friday into next weekend, we are not convinced at this point in time.


We started out the day with temps in the low - upper 40's for most of the valleys, however Waynesville and other central valley locations in Haywood County were able to dip into the upper 30's, while the highest ridgelines above 6000' saw temps in the low - mid 30's! Mt Lynn Lowry in particular (6037') dipped down to 33.6°F this morning. Sunshine will dominate the sky today and dewpoints will be very low, creating the perfect setup to catch a long range view. For those hitting the Parkway today, bring a light jacket as temps will only warm to the upper 50's above 5800'. Down in the valleys we'll hit the mid - upper 70's, with overnight lows in the low - upper 40's once again under mostly clear skies.


Sunday features increasing clouds, temps warming back to the mid 70's across the lower elevations, while the highest ridgelines flirt with the low 60's. Southerly flow returns later in the day and by midday we should have high, thin clouds overhead, increasing as the day moves along. Isolated showers and sprinkles are likely for the Southern Highlands Plateau by the mid - late evening hours, with coverage slowly expanding to cover all of SW NC by sunrise on Monday. This is not to say we expect widespread coverage, but instead that all of SW NC is in play for showers to develop with coverage increasing to scattered. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 50's.


Monday will be wet and flirt with our definition of a washout, but for the most part it will be a typical early summer day with shower chances lingering all day long and rainfall totals ranging from a quarter of an inch across Haywood County to nearly an inch for Cherokee and Graham counties. A few thunderstorms are possible but nothing severe is expected. Temps will be a touch cooler and still likely to hit the mid 70's for the valleys, followed by overnight lows in the mid 50's - low 60's, alongside scattered light - moderate showers.


Tuesday will be warmer than Monday as southerly flow ramps up ahead of the approaching cold front but it seems we'll experience a break in the action early in the day, with coverage becoming widespread by the late afternoon/early evening hours. Temps reach the low 80's Tuesday and cool back down to the low - mid 70's Wednesday post frontal. Showers may extend into Wednesday morning but the models show another break from regionwide rainfall on Wednesday with only a few showers throughout the day.


We'll stop here and circle back on Monday with a more defined timeline and forecasted totals for the week ahead, but in general plan for a wet week with temps fairly warm, cooling down noticeably by Thursday or Friday. ENJOY!

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