Monday PM Rain; Chilly but Dry Tuesday

Good morning folks! It sure has been a wet few days with everyone across SW NC picking up at least 1.25", while the highest totals come close to 3"; Cullowhee is leading the charge with a 2.91" total since Thursday. A good portion of the area from the N GA line to the Southern Highlands Plateau have picked up 1.75" - 2" of rain since last Thursday. We'll pick another 0.10 - 0.25" of rain today into Monday morning, with the bulk of it falling during the overnight hours and a second round of rain moves through Monday evening with much higher totals, dropping an inch of rain before sunrise on Tuesday. We should begin to dry out Tuesday but temps will cool down due to cold air advection after the frontal passage early Tuesday morning; a quick and light round of snow is likely along the TN line and nearby ridgelines before 10am Tuesday. Sunshine and fair weather carries over into Wednesday but this will be short lived as moisture returns to the region, building clouds across the area before sunset but not before temps hit the mid - upper 50's! A third round of rain swings through Thursday during the day as a low pressure system passes across the area, followed by a trailing cold front Thursday night. This third round will bring several inches of rain to the region, with 2.5 - 3" possible along the escarpment while the remainder of SW NC picks up 1.5 - 2" of rain, with a slight rain shadow playing out in Haywood County as totals are held to 1 - 1.5" through Friday morning. The models and the NWS hint at a NW flow snow event Friday for the usual locations but details are still too fuzzy to talk totals. This is a welcomed sign for Cataloochee Ski Area and other ski resorts throughout the WNC after this recent stretch of rainy weather.


Today (Sunday) will be cloudy, damp, and at times we'll experience an isolated shower or drizzle with the only silver lining being that temps will push to the mid 40's - low 50's across the region. Temps tonight settle into the upper 30's - low 40's and as showers peak in coverage this evening, we'll pick up 0.10 - 0.25" of rain, with shower coverage winding down shortly after midnight.


Monday starts the day with cloudy skies and a break from the rain but showers return around 2 - 4pm, increasing to widespread coverage during the late evening hours, wrapping up shortly after midnight. Temps will warm once again to the mid 40's - low 50's across the landscape and rainfall totals will average out to an inch across SW NC by sunrise; overnight lows in the low - upper 30's.


The timing of the cold air advection is not a lock but it seems colder air will begin to push into the region during the morning hours on Tuesday, possibly creating a high for the day before noon. Some light snow is possible along the TN line but we are not expecting any accumulations outside a dusting. The rest of SW NC will experience gradually clearing skies once the front passes through the region and mostly sunny skies are likely by midday, with temps in the low 30's - mid 40's by the mid afternoon hours. Overnight lows bottom out to the low - upper 20's under a handful of clouds.


Wednesday keeps fair weather going to start the day but cloudy skies are likely by the end of the day as moisture surges ahead of our next rain event. Temps rebound to the low 40's mid 50's Wednesday afternoon and its possible some of the more SW towns like Andrews and Robbinsville reach the upper 50's! Showers move in during the evening hours and become widespread after midnight, with scattered - widespread coverage holding firm throughout the day on Thursday as the low pressure system passes across the region.


Thursday is shaping up to be a washout with moderate - heavy rain falling throughout the day, ending Thursday night and transitioning to a NW flow snow event for the TN line Friday morning. Even though it'll be a washout at least temps warm to the mid 40's - low 50's as opposed to a cold rain like our neighbors in the Piedmont will experience. We'll stop here and circle back on Tuesday with a better look at the Thursday rain event and following NW flow snow event Friday.

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