Light Rain Thur; Chilly yet Sunny Wknd
Good afternoon folks! We are enjoying temps in the 70's across the region today (Wednesday) and this should be the last round of warm weather for the next 8 - 12 days with normal to below normal temps showing up on the models through Thanksgiving Day. A cold front will arrive tomorrow closer to midday and develop showers across the region during the early - late afternoon hours, with coverage waning as we approach midnight. High pressure sets up shop on Friday and brings with it cooler air and our driest airmass of the season (might want to break out the humidifiers), allowing sunny skies to sit overhead Friday and Saturday; most of the day on Sunday. An upper level trough will develop across the Great Lakes closer to Sunday and push a cold front our way, arriving sometime Sunday night, exiting Monday morning. Showers are likely across all of SW NC Sunday night and coverage scales back as the day moves along on Monday, with high elevation snow as temps sit in the 30's all day above 5000'. Isolated light snow showers or flurries are possible across the region Monday night, but most likely coverage will be contained to the NW flow locations. We are not sure how much snow may fall at this time, but there should be enough moisture for light accumulations by Monday afternoon above 4500' and along NW facing slopes that are closer to the TN line. The coldest airmass of the season arrives Monday night and well below normal temps will linger the remainder of the holiday week, with temps struggling to climb out of the low - mid 40's across the valleys Tuesday and Wednesday; overnight lows in the teens regionwide!
The timeline starts on Thursday with clouds increasing during the morning hours and temps warming on a southwest flow to the mid - upper 60's across the lower elevations. Showers should arrive shortly after midday and linger into the evening hours, fizzling out before midnight, with most of the region picking up anywhere between 0.10 - 0.25" of rain. Temps bottom out to the low - upper 20's depending upon elevation and its likely some flurries develop on the backend of the precip window during the pre dawn hours, mainly for the favored NW flow locations.
Friday through Sunday will be similar, although Sunday features increasing throughout the day, whereas Friday and Saturday will be sunny. What they do share in common are below normal temps, with afternoon highs hitting the low 40's - mid 50's Friday and Saturday, warming slightly to the upper 40's - upper 50's on Sunday. Overnight lows dip to the mid 20's - low 30's Friday and Saturday nights, while Sunday night holds to the mid - upper 30's due to mostly cloudy skies and light showers. Scattered showers develop before midnight and spill over into Monday morning, with rain kicking over to snow as soon as the mid morning hours above 5500', slowly working its way down throughout the day on Monday.
Monday will be a raw, bone chilling type of day as NW flow sets up shop after the front moves through, maintaining a steady flow of moist, cold air with temps only hitting the mid 30's above 5500', while the valleys peak to the upper 40's and rapidly drop into the upper teens Monday night; low teens above 4000'. This should be our coldest night of the season regionwide, with clear skies overhead by the pre dawn hours.
Sunshine takes over Tuesday and lingers into Thanksgiving Day, however temps will struggle to climb past the upper 20's - mid 40's depending upon elevation Tuesday and Wednesday! We'll stop here and circle back Friday afternoon with more details on the light snow event Monday morning and the remainder of the holiday week. ENJOY!