Light Rain Sunday PM; Skiff of Snow Monday

Good evening folks! Quiet yet cooler weather kicks off the weekend on Saturday with mostly sunny skies overhead and temps running 3 - 4 degrees below normal for mid November. An upper level trough begins to enter the eastern portion of the US on Sunday, coupled with a cold front that should arrive sometime Sunday evening. This front will bring our region 0.10 - 0.25" of rain Sunday evening into Monday morning, ending shortly after sunrise as snow across the higher elevations. Light accumulations under an inch are likely above 5000' for the favored NW flow locations closer to the TN line. The rest of SW NC will experience a quick transition from rain to sunny skies Monday morning, but temps will only make it to levels 10 - 12 degrees below normal. The coldest temps of the season arrive Monday night with strong westerly winds around 10 - 20mph, as cold air advection brings overnight lows into the low - upper teens. Tuesday will be yet another cold day across the region with temps a degree or two colder than Monday, however wind speeds should drop down to a light breeze after midday. This will set the stage for an inversion Tuesday night, with temps in the 20's across the valleys, while the ridgelines hold to the 30's. Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day remain dry and temps moderate, returning to the normal levels for late November. The models show a round of rain Friday into Saturday after Thanksgiving, however we are unsure as to how much or how long the event may last.


Timeline kicks off Saturday morning with sunny skies overhead and temps warming to the mid 40's - upper 50's depending upon elevation. Some clouds develop overnight but temps should still be able to settle into the upper 20's - mid 30's across the region.


Sunday features increasing clouds as southwesterly flow increases ahead of the approaching front, which will keep temps to the upper 40's - upper 50's across the area. Light showers are possible as early as the mid afternoon hours for the Plateau and escarpment, while the remainder of the region waits till the evening hours for the frontal passage. The highest rainfall totals will be along the TN line where up to 0.50 -.075" of rain may fall, while the majority of SW NC experiences an average of 0.25". Temps overnight will remain above freezing till the pre dawn hours and then crash into the upper 20's - upper 30's from the top down as cold air advection begins before sunrise. Enough moisture should be available on the tail end of the front to kick rain over to snow above 5000' before sunrise; mainly for the TN line and nearby NW facing ridgelines.


Light snow winds down shortly after sunrise for the TN line, with clouds lingering into the late morning hours, while the rest of SW NC enjoys clearing skies. Westerly wind speeds increase as the day moves along, winding down late Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday only reach the low 30's - mid 40's each afternoon, which is 10 - 12 degrees below normal, and although Tuesday may technically be colder, it will feel warmer as winds die down later in the day. Overnight lows bottom out to the low - upper teens Monday night and settle into the mid 20's in the valleys and low 30's above 4500' Tuesday night, both under clear skies.


Wednesday and Thursday keep the fair weather train going and temps moderate to the upper 40's - low 60's by the afternoon hours on Thanksgiving Day. We'll mention a chance for rain on Friday and stop here, circling back Sunday morning around 10am with a better look at next Friday and Saturday. ENJOY!

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