Hot & Muggy; Afternoon Thunderstorms
Good morning folks! We're making a slight change to the forecast since our last discussion on Sunday, reducing shower coverage on Thursday as opposed to a day to day increase in shower coverage. Friday and Saturday will also change, with more sunshine than previously forecasted as the front's impact on the region seems to be delayed till Sunday. Minus these few changes, the forecast remains on track with above normal moisture levels extending all the way through the weekend, coupled with temps holding to the upper 80's each afternoon till cloud cover increases on Sunday. There is a growing (very small at this point) chance the tropical system developing in the Caribbean could swing into the Southeast and perhaps our region. If this were to occur, our stretch of rainy days will continue into next week but this is too far out in time to speak with any confidence.
Today (Tuesday) will feature another round of sunshine in the morning and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon, with temps once again pushing into the low 70's above 5500', while the valleys reach the upper 80's. Normal high temps for early August are in the mid 80's, but moisture levels remain well above normal, so any showers that do develop have a decent shot at producing heavy rainfall rates. Temps dip into the upper 50's - mid 60's once again tonight and for those who are counting, we are 10/10 this month for foggy mornings and likely to extend the streak to 11 mornings in a row.
Wednesday is similar to Tuesday, with a mixed bag of fog and sun (depending upon elevation) to start the day, followed by pop up showers and thunderstorms after midday. The only difference compared to Tuesday will be the uptick in rainfall rates, with some heavy downpours likely, so be sure to check the radar as you head outside. Temps once again hit the low 70's - upper 80's depending upon elevation, settling back into the upper 50's - mid 60's overnight into Thursday; fog likely for areas that picked up rain during the day.
Thursday through Saturday features a slightly reduced chance for showers, mainly Thursday as dry air tries to work its way into the region, but is thwarted by the continuous southeasterly flow across the area. There will be more sunshine overhead on Thursday compared to today and Wednesday, with coverage only amounting to scattered levels by the mid afternoon hours. Friday and Saturday offer up a handful more showers compared to Thursday but we'll continue to enjoy the uptick in sunshine with temps hitting the upper 80's across the valleys all three days. Overnight lows dip into the low - mid 60's each night and its possible no fog develops Thursday night.
Sunday wraps up the weekend with more cloud cover and shower activity compared to Friday and Saturday. We do not expect a washout but we do expect 60 - 70% of SW NC to experience a passing shower at some point during the day and night. Temps hold to the low 70's - mid 80's depending upon elevation and this slight cool down may extend into next week. We'll stop here and circle back on Thursday with a better look at the weekend and early next week. ENJOY!