Hot Mon/Tues; Low Confidence Past Wed
Good morning folks! Wildfire smoke from out west is leading to hazy conditions across the landscape today (Monday) but overall the forecast has remained the same since our last post on Saturday, with a possible trend toward a wetter Wed - Fri timeframe. Confidence past Tuesday night drops as a lot hinges upon where the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicholas end up, but there is a slow growing trend to move the remnants into our region, as an upper level trough swings into the east, translating to a regionwide rain event later this week. This is not set in stone and will likely require us to post a new update Tuesday morning to ensure the timeline and impacts are up to date. One silver lining from this potential uptick in rain chances is that temps will be cooler than previously forecasted as we continue to deal with well above average temps for mid September. Mostly sunny skies will sit overhead today and stretch into Tuesday morning, with late day clouds building and perhaps an isolated shower or two along the escarpment as we transition to southerly flow. Scattered shower chances move in Wednesday and for the sake of providing a full forecast timeline, we expect shower activity to continue into Thursday and Friday, possibly drying out this weekend. Temps cool down to the low 80's Wednesday - Friday, possibly cooler if shower coverage increases, but should bounce back to the upper 70's- low 80's by this weekend.
We'll start the timeline on Tuesday, with valley fog starting the day and sunshine taking over by late morning, pushing temps into the mid - upper 80's across the lower elevations. Partly cloudy skies will develop later in the day and as southerly flow takes over, isolated showers will develop along the Highlands Plateau, fizzling out later during the evening hours. Temps drop to the low 50's - low 60's depending upon elevation under partly cloudy skies.
Wednesday through Friday will be summarized as wet, muggy, and a touch cooler but not fall like as temps remain 2 - 4 degrees above average. We could pick anywhere from a half inch up to several inches of rain Wednesday through Friday, all dependent upon how the remnants of Nicholas move across the Southeast. If we had to say which way the Nicholas will swing, we are leaning toward it being absorbed by the incoming upper level trough, swinging tropical moisture into the region, leading to scattered - widespread rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday afternoon.
We'll stop here and circle back tomorrow morning around 9:30am with a better timeline for later this week as we should know much more 24 hours from now, mainly because Nicholas will have made landfall at this point in time. Stay tuned!