Heavy Rain Wed Night; Turning Sunny Thursday
Good morning folks! We're in for another chilly day with temps running 4 - 6 degrees cooler than normal for late November, but at least we'll have the sunshine to help fight off the cooler temps. A front approaches the region this evening and we'll notice an uptick in southerly flow later today as high clouds begin to infiltrate into the area closer to sunset. Showers break out along the escarpment this evening but take till the late morning hours on Wednesday to really get going across the rest of SW NC, with coverage and intensities peaking late Wednesday evening. Shower activity is likely to spill over into Thursday morning but even with a slow frontal passage we still expect clearing skies before or around midday and sunshine to end the day. Friday looks sunny and Saturday may even offer up more sunshine than cloud cover with the threat of rain holding off till later in the day on Sunday. Our confidence remains low from Sunday into early next week as a low pressure system migrates southeast from the Four Corners region later this week, moving east-northeast as it reaches the Gulf region, possibly staying south of our region or riding just to our west early next week. The end result for each scenario are night and day with little to no rain (more southerly) to a heavy rain event (just to our west) but what is almost a certainty is that colder air will follow this third system, possibly ending as snow across the higher elevations (likely to change, don't get too excited just yet).
We'll start the discussion timeline Tuesday evening as clouds build across the region and light drizzle begins to break out along the escarpment as southerly flow crashes into the sudden rise in terrain. Shower coverage will slowly expand overnight but will likely take till late morning on Wednesday for scattered coverage to be achieved, continuing to fill in as the day moves along and reaching widespread coverage closer to sunset. Temps tonight will dip into the upper 30's - low 40's across the region with gusty southwest winds around 10 - 30mph; rainfall totals under a tenth of an inch region wide tonight.
Temps Wednesday will be able to push into the upper 40's - upper 50's due to southerly flow and a quarter of an inch of rain is likely throughout the day, followed by 0.75 - 1.25" of rain overnight into Thursday. Overnight lows Wednesday night settle into the upper 40's - low 50's depending upon elevation.
Thanksgiving Day starts out with passing clouds and spotty showers, quickly drying out before midday, followed by clearing skies that should result in sunshine overhead during the afternoon hours. Temps warm to the mid 50's - upper 60's depending upon elevation, with a westerly wind around 5 - 15mph (almost spring like). Clear skies Thursday night bring temps back into the upper 30's - low 40's across the region.
Friday will be another pleasant day with more sunshine and temps warming to the mid 50's - mid 60's depending upon elevation. Its possible a few light showers swing through Friday night but this will be short lived and most locations will remain dry, but we do expect an uptick in cloud cover that will cap temps to the mid - upper 40's.
Saturday keeps a few clouds around from the overnight system but for now it looks like another dry day and temps will hold to the upper 40's - low 60's during the afternoon. Sunday into Tuesday of next week is not set in stone and there remains a chance for heavy rain late Sunday into Monday, followed by some backside snow that will favor the TN line and NW flow areas; nothing region wide.
We'll stop here and circle back on Thursday morning. If you have not done your cold weather preparation this season, do so before next Tues/Wed as temps could dip into the teens for the first time this season.