Heavy Rain Thursday Night; Mid 70's Friday!
Good morning folks! The light rain will wind down later this morning and we'll notice the cloud cover breaking up ever so slightly after midday, allowing temps to make a run at the low 70's! This is warmer than our previous forecast but I'm sure no one is complaining about warmer temps in early spring. A warm front will lift across the region out of the south Thursday afternoon, followed by a cold front out of the west early Friday and this double punch will bring healthy totals to the region, with showers ending just in time for any outdoor activities you have planned for Friday evening. Dry air rushes into the area from the west Friday night and eases a bit Saturday morning, with southerly flow taking over later in the day Saturday, allowing for a few showers to develop before sunset (another change in the forecast). The previous discussion mentioned a possibility for rain on Sunday and as of today it looks like a solid bet, due to a cold front crossing the region during the day, bringing with it regionwide showers for a few hours. Post frontal we'll dry back out but this will not occur till late Sunday night, setting up early next week with sunny skies that could last into the middle of next week.
Temps make a run at the upper 50's - low 70's this afternoon after picking up roughly a tenth of an inch for most of the region since yesterday evening. The winners for this light round of rain include Otto and Lake Toxaway at 0.24", Stecoah Gap at 0.32", and Highlands with the win at 0.63". Overnight lows settle into the upper 40's - mid 50's across the region under partly - mostly cloudy skies and dense fog along rivers and creeks.
Thursday may end up being a few degrees cooler than today, when originally it was supposed to be the other way around, but it seems cloud cover will ramp up early in the day, capping temps to the upper 50's - upper 60's across the region. We wouldn't be surprised to see a few reading in the low 70's for the deeper valleys. Light showers are possible at any point tomorrow, but the main event should hold off till the early afternoon hours, as coverage increases to scattered, peaking to widespread coverage shortly after midnight on Friday. Overnight lows will only dip to the low - upper 50's Thursday night and heavy rain is likely during the pre dawn hours. We'll pick up an inch of rain regionwide Thur AM - Fri midday, although eastern Haywood County may end up with less than 0.75". The winners will the Unicoi Mountains, Snowbird Mountains, and all of the Southern Highlands Plateau/escarpment where 2 - 2.5" is a good bet.
Friday brings an end to the rain but it may take till noon for most of the precip to push east and as the cold front exits the region, wind speeds will ramp up above 4500', alongside drier air rushing into the region out of the west. This will not stop temps from soaring to the upper 50's - low 60's above 5000', while the valleys begin to roast as we hit the mid 70's! Overnight lows drop to the low - upper 40's Friday night under clearing skies.
Saturday and Sunday will be a 50/50 split as we start the day sunny on Saturday and end it with a handful of pop up showers, whereas Sunday will be cloudy from the start and feature a few hours of regionwide rainfall as the front crosses the Carolinas. Temps Saturday warm to the upper 50's - mid 70's once again and cool down a degree or two on Sunday to the mid 50's - upper 60's. It looks like another inch of rain is in the cards but seeing how we are roughly four days out from the event, we'll not go into any more detail.
Early next week looks promising with sunshine overhead Monday and Tuesday and temps holding to the mid - upper 50's across the valleys. Our next discussion will come out Friday morning and we should have a better handle on rainfall amounts for the Sunday rain event.