Heavy Rain then Fall Like Conditions
Good morning folks! We no longer have temps reaching the upper 80's in the forecast starting today (Monday), through at least Monday of next week. Today will be our warmest day of the week with temps reaching the mid 80's in the valleys, but scattered showers this afternoon will provide passing clouds and temporary shade to help offset some of this warmth. The remnants of Ida will move through the Eastern TN and pass nearby around noon tomorrow, exiting our region overnight into Wednesday morning. This will increase southerly flow across the region, in tandem with an uptick in moisture levels, translating to widespread heavy rain across SW NC Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. Most of SW NC will pick up 1 - 2" over the next 72 hours, ending Wednesday morning, however numerous ridgelines and most of the Highlands Plateau will pick up 3 - 5" of rain, most of this falling Tuesday evening into the pre dawn hours on Wednesday. This of course is a cause for concern after our recent historic flooding and tragedy in the Cruso - Bethel area, however the impacts from this event should be minimal, with small creek flooding possible and downed trees as we expect high winds around 30 - 40mph Tuesday evening along our highest ridgelines (4500' +). Following this heavy rain event will be a gradually drying out, starting sometime Wednesday afternoon, eventually clearing out in time to setup a sunny day on Thursday. It will take most of the day on Thursday for the dry air to fully infiltrate the region but we expect our first taste of fall to arrive Thursday through Sunday, with low dewpoints and temps roughly 1 - 3 degrees below normal. Sunny skies take over Thursday and stick around through at least Sunday, with overnight lows in the upper 40's - mid 50's each night!!!
We'll start the timeline on Tuesday and if you have plans to be outside during the day, we recommend rescheduling as shower activity picks up during the morning hours, becoming widespread by the mid - late afternoon hours. Temps will hold to the mid 60's - upper 70's depending upon elevation and the heaviest rain is expected to arrive during the evening hours, alongside strong southerly winds around 15 - 25mph for most of the region, gusting to 30 - 40mph along the ridgelines. Heavy rain will continue into Wednesday morning but begin to scale back in coverage shortly after sunrise, with overnight lows in the upper 50's - mid 60's. Most of the 1 - 2" for the interior portions of SW NC and 3 - 5" across the Highlands Plateau will fall from Tuesday afternoon into the pre dawn hours on Wednesday; travel is not recommended. The driest spot with this event looks be to central and northern Haywood county due to downsloping off the Great Balsams; 3 day total around an inch.
Wednesday starts out wet and scattered showers will continue for most of the day, scaling back to isolated coverage sometime around 2 - 4pm. Temps warm to the low 60's - mid 70's depending upon elevation, making Wednesday the coolest day of the week, although it will be extremely muggy. Overnight lows bottom out to the low - upper 50's across the region as dry air begins to move into the region.
Thursday is our transition day, with mostly sunny skies overhead and temps warming back to the mid 60's - upper 70's across the region, perhaps hitting 80°F in the valleys. We'll notice a major change in moisture levels, going from somewhat normal around sunrise to fall like by sunset, setting the stage for temps to drop into the mid 40's - low 50's; possibly following a temperature inversion setup but we are not sure this far out in time.
Friday through Sunday will be gorgeous and our first taste of fall as sunny skies sit overhead, with no rain in the forecast, and humidity levels at extremely comfortable levels. Temps warm to the low 80's Friday and level off to the mid 80's this weekend across the valleys, while the ridgelines struggle to reach 70°F on Sunday. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 50's each night under clear skies.
We'll stop here and circle back Wednesday morning. ENJOY!