Heavy Downpours into Tuesday; Rain all Week
Good afternoon folks! Yesterday was a warm day for most of the region, minus the few areas that picked up 1 - 2" of rain from the pop up thunderstorms. Temps will be a touch cooler today (Sunday) through Tuesday as they climb to the upper 70's - low 80's across the lower elevations and eventually return to the low - mid 80's by the middle of the week, extending into next weekend. We're in for a long stretch of muggy and wet weather as high pressure off the coast and an upper level low to our west funnel gulf moisture into the region throughout the week. The models point to a frontal passage around Friday that will shift flow from the southwest to the northwest and this will likely knock down some of the excessive mugginess. All in all, we should pick up anywhere from 1.5 - 3" of rain across SW NC Sunday into Friday, however some of these storms will produce heavy downpours that will be slow to move and lead to localized totals north of 2 - 3" in a 24 hour period.
We'll start the timeline on Monday and the setup will be similar to Sunday with the exception that showers and thunderstorms will pop up just about anywhere at anytime throughout the day. Monday and Tuesday in particular feature the best chance for heavy, slow moving downpours and although chances for shower development can occur anywhere, we do not expect a washout or a day long event. Instead, we anticipate a summertime setup with more clouds than sun overhead and if the sun were to poke through, its a good bet a shower will follow shortly with such high moisture levels across the region. The area likely to experience the highest totals will be along or near the Snowbird and Unicoi Mountains, extending to the Southern Highlands Plateau and the escarpment; all due to steady southerly flow. Temps warm to the upper 70's - low 80's across the valleys both afternoons and wind speeds will be light, not providing much relief if you need to escape the muggy setup. Overnight lows will settle into the upper 50's - low 60's depending upon elevation and nighttime showers are likely both nights, with higher coverage just after sunset versus sunrise.
Wednesday into Friday offers up continuing shower chances but thunderstorm activity is likely to wane, leaving us with light - heavy showers that have a better chance at passing your location quickly as opposed to stalling overhead. Flow becomes southwesterly Wednesday and temps respond slightly as they push to the low - mid 80's all three days, although Friday may be cooler if the frontal passage is earlier in the day. The only difference we anticipate for the end of the week is perhaps more sunshine Friday into Saturday, but shower chances are expected to continue well into next weekend.
We'll stop here and circle back on Tuesday. Stay dry!