Gorgeous this Weekend; Two Fronts Next Week
Good afternoon folks! Fair weather is expected to continue into Friday and through Sunday evening, with a weak frontal passage occurring Monday that will bring isolated showers late Sunday night. Dry and sunny weather quickly follow the front with sunny skies likely to end the day on Monday, followed by more sunshine Tuesday and then a second frontal passage early Wednesday. This second front is likely bring us more rain than the first round and the models are currently stuck on fast the front moves through the region, possibly exiting Wednesday evening or late Thursday morning. We'll give the models a few more days to work out the details but the writing is on the wall for a scattered to widespread rain event sometime Wednesday; nothing major, just our first notable event in roughly a week. Temps all the while go from 5 - 8 degrees above normal this weekend to normal levels (mid - upper 50's in the valleys) early next week, even with the uptick in moisture levels Sunday night and again Wednesday.
Friday and Saturday keep sunny skies overhead and clouds begin to build across the region early Sunday morning as moisture pools ahead of the incoming front from the west. Temps Friday warm to the mid 50's - mid 60's depending upon elevation and climb a few more degrees this weekend to the upper 60's on Saturday, dropping back down to the low - mid 60's Sunday as cloud cover increases. Overnight lows dip into the low - upper 30's Friday night under clear skies (temperature inversion likely), followed by lows in the upper 30's - low 40's Saturday under partly cloudy skies and then upper 30's - mid 40's Sunday alongside isolated showers. Most of the shower activity will occur along or near the TN line and rainfall totals should remain under a tenth of an inch, with all activity winding down by sunrise.
Monday features clearing skies with sunshine overhead by midday and temps warming to the upper 40's - upper 50's depending upon elevation, which is normal for this time of year. Wind speeds out of the NW around 10 - 15mph will make for a chilly start to the day but winds should calm down past midday. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 30's under a few clouds.
Tuesday keeps sunshine overhead as upper level ridging moves back into the area but this will be shorted lived with an upper level trough quickly swinging east, reaching our area by Wednesday. This will bring us a second and much stronger cold front, one that is likely to produce scattered to widespread showers Wednesday. Temps Tuesday and Wednesday hold to the upper 40's - upper 50's depending upon elevation, although it will feel a touch cooler on Wednesday with cloud cover and increased moisture levels. With Wednesday normally the busiest travel day of the year we will keep an eye on this system but for now its nothing to worry about, so keep those plans and check back in on Saturday as we take a deeper look.