First Freeze on Mt LeConte; Sunny thru Wed
Good morning folks! We have several reports of frost across the region and although the reports are extremely isolated, today marks the first day for frost in the region, with no widespread frost or freeze expected over the next 7 days. The coldest temp recorded overnight was 28°F at Mt LeConte, while several valley and low lying hollers dipped into the mid 30's, compared to the ridgelines that eventually experienced an inversion, pushing them closer to the upper 30's by sunrise. Notably, this 28°F reading is the coldest this early in the season since 2006 for Mt LeConte, according to NWS Morristown.
We have a picture perfect day on tap (Friday) and fair weather will extend all the way into Wednesday of next week, however the cooler fall temps will sadly give way to above normal temps by Monday, peaking to the low 80's Tuesday and Wednesday. Average high for the valleys for late September is 75°F, so this warmup will push temps roughly 7 - 8 degrees above normal. A cold front swings through Saturday evening, but with little fanfare other than some patchy clouds early Sunday, with a second front on the table for Wednesday, however it may take till Thursday for shower activity to develop with moisture levels being so low. All in all, a quiet next seven days and turning more fall like with each passing week. If you are timing the color change, we still are holding to a peak color window for the highest ridgelines above 5000' occurring sometime between 10/5 - 10/11/21. This morning's freeze above 6000' will kick color change into high gear.
We'll keep the forecast short and sweet as there is not much to discuss other than sunny skies, warming temps, and a continuing stretch of dry weather. Saturday through Tuesday will keep mostly sunny skies overhead and temps will warm from the mid 70's Saturday to the low 80's Monday, holding to this level through Wednesday. The highest ridgelines above 5000' will only max out to the upper 60's Mon/Tues, with highs in the low 60's this weekend. Overnight lows will settle into the upper 30's - mid 40's Friday night, but gradually warm to the mid 40's - low 50's by Monday night (depending upon elevation).
The best chance for shower activity will be early Thursday morning along the escarpment as southeasterly flow returns with limited moisture, but enough to fire off a few light showers before noon. This may change but for now its our only sign of rain over the next 5 - 7 days.
We'll stop here and circle back on Sunday with a new discussion, sometime around 10:30am. ENJOY!