Fall Weather this Weekend!!!
Good afternoon folks! Not much has changed since our last post on Monday, with the frontal passage timing being the only shift in the forecast, from Saturday evening to Friday night. This shifts the timeline for cooler weather up by a day and translates to a full weekend of fall like weather as opposed to a split setup Saturday into Sunday. Before the front arrives Friday evening, we'll endure two more days of above normal temps and dry weather Thursday and Friday, with temps pushing into the low 80's Thursday and upper 70's Friday across the valleys. The upper level ridge maintaining the current setup will breakdown Friday as the front approaches and cool, dry, continental air will usher into the region as soon as the morning hours Saturday, with a window of rain from Friday evening into the mid morning hours Saturday; isolated coverage, minimal totals. Temps struggle to climb past the mid - upper 60's this weekend for the valleys, which has been the high temp for the highest ridgelines above 5500' for nearly two weeks. Higher up above 4500', temps will hold to the low - mid 50's through the weekend and as we enter early next week, temps will moderate a few degrees, leveling out to the mid 50's - upper 60's Monday into Tuesday, all under sunny skies.
We'll start the timeline on Thursday and although the calendar says October 14th, we'll be dealing with late August - early September temperatures as they soar into the low 80's across the valleys after a foggy start. The ridgelines above 5500' will reach the mid - upper 60's, which is one of the main reasons leaf color change hasn't even begun below 5500', stalling the color season by roughly 2.5 weeks. Sunshine dominates the day and clear skies once again rule the night, with well above normal temps in the mid - upper 50's depending upon elevation.
Friday will be a fun day as we go from sunshine before noon and temps peaking to the upper 70's in the valleys (mid 60's along the ridgelines), to clouds building before sunset and isolated showers peppering the region during the evening hours. Shower coverage will extend into the mid morning hours on Saturday and peak coverage will be around midnight, possibly expanding to scattered coverage, with rainfall totals around 0.10 - 0.25" across the region; higher amounts closer to the TN line. Temps Friday night will continue with lows in the low - upper 50's so no worries if you are heading out to a high school football game, but for those planning an outdoor excursion Saturday, dress for cooler weather.
Clouds scour out as we approach midday Saturday and then full sunshine takes over, with temps only touching the mid - upper 60's across the lower elevations, coupled with a decline in dewpoints; slightly muggy to start the day and bone dry by sunset (chapstick/static cling type dry). Temps bottom out to the low - upper 30's across the region Saturday night under ideal raditional cooing conditions, possibly leading to an inversion, but for now we are going with a top down approach, keeping freezing temps above the 4500 - 5000' elevation line. It may be mid October but I hope to break out the snowguns Saturday night for the first snowmaking session of the season. If you want snow made at or delivered to your location, shoot us an email at firstname.lastname@example.org (already have a few clients booked for the winter)!
Sunday into Tuesday will be ideal as temps warm ever so slightly heading into next week, maxing out to the low 70's by Monday and Tuesday, with sunshine continuing to reign supreme. Overnight lows settle into the upper 30's - mid 40's (depending upon elevation) each night under clear skies.
We'll stop here and circle back on Friday, with a better look at the freezing temps Saturday night and a peak into early next week. ENJOY!