Elevation Dependent Snow Wed into Fri
Good morning folks! We kick off the month of November with a classic fall day as sunny skies, dry air, and cooler temps dominate the forecast on Monday. Temps will gradually drop as we move through the week, dipping to the low 60's Tuesday, mid 50's Wednesday, and upper 40's Thursday (across the valleys). This is due to several fronts and a high pressure system that will translate to a few clouds on Tuesday, increasing clouds Wednesday and high elevation snow Wednesday night through Thursday night, while the valleys deal with a cold rain and maybe, maybe a token flake or two mixing in Friday morning. This does not look like a big event but it is our first regionwide shot of snow, after picking up our first dusting of snow this past Saturday (Mt Mitchell). I do not anticipate travel issues as the wintry threat will be above 5000', with accumulations likely above this line, snow falling as low as 4000 - 4500' for a few hours Friday morning. Precip coverage winds down Friday morning, with sunshine returning later that day, however temps will only rebound to the low 50's (at best) and cooler weather extends into the weekend, with temps holding to the low - mid 50's Saturday and Sunday under sunny skies. This weekend also features our first regionwide dip into the 20's, with Sunday morning shooting for the coldest morning this season.
Timeline starts on Tuesday with a weak cold front sweeping the region and I do not foresee any showers developing, with high, thin clouds the likely outcome, more so for the TN line, whereas those who live closer to SC will experience mostly sunny skies. Temps warm to the upper 40's - low 60's depending upon elevation and dip into the low - upper 30's Tuesday night under partly cloudy skies.
Moisture will begin to build across the region Wednesday and clouds develop/thicken as the day moves along, capping temps to the low 40's - mid 50's depending upon elevation. It's possible light snow begins to fall above 5500' Wednesday evening, with coverage expanding very slowly as we move into the pre dawn hours on Thursday. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 30's across the region and most of SW NC will experience some form of precip by sunrise on Thursday.
Elevation dependent rain/snow will occur on Thursday, extending into the early morning hours on Friday, with accumulating snow likely above 5000'. How much remains the question but an inch or two is possible as temps hold to the mid 30's along the highest ridgelines throughout the day, while the valleys warm to the mid - upper 40's. This spells out a cold and miserable day for Thursday for the vast majority of SW NC, while the highest elevations enjoy an early season snow. We will circle back Wednesday morning with a more detailed breakdown of how much and where you can find accumulating snowfall. For those new to LYW this winter season, this is our M.O. as we typically wait till 1 - 2 days out before nailing down snow totals via the SNOWCAST maps, especially during NW flow and Upper Level Low events, which can vary wilding based on location and elevation. The elevation split continues into Thursday night, although some token flakes are likely to mix down to 2500 - 3500' for a few hours early Friday morning. Overnight lows Thursday night settle into the low - mid 30's across the region.
Friday wraps up any wintry precip by the late morning hours, as coverage slowly scales back to the TN line and fizzles out around noon. Elsewhere across SW NC we'll enjoy precip coming to an end shortly after sunrise and clouds clearing the region shortly after midday, allowing temps to warm to the low 50's across the valleys; upper 30's above 5000'. Friday night features temps in the mid 20's - low 30's across the region, with partly cloudy skies clinging on, eventually giving way to clear skies shortly after sunrise on Saturday.
The weekend ahead looks gorgeous with ample sunshine, albeit a touch chilly, as temps struggle to reach the mid 50's both Saturday and Sunday, with overnight lows bottoming out to the low - upper 20's each night; Sunday morning the coldest. It's likely Sunday morning will feature colder temps in the valleys compared to the ridgelines as a possible temperature inversion occurs under ideal raditional cooling.
We'll stop here and circle back Wednesday morning with more details about the incoming snow and take a sneak peek into early next week. ENJOY!