Drying Out; Warm through Thursday
Good afternoon folks! Showers continue to pepper the region as of Sunday mid afternoon and coverage will continue into the evening hours, fizzling out before midnight. Most of the region picked up 2 - 2.5" of rain from Friday morning into Sunday afternoon and numerous sites are reporting 3", with a handful surpassing 4". Only three stations are making a run at the 5" threshold, so all in all the forecasted totals are verifying and it looks our next round of rain will be isolated showers Monday and Thursday nights. A front will swing through the region around sunrise on Tuesday and a few showers will develop overnight along the TN line, while the rest of SW NC remains dry. Sunshine reigns supreme Tuesday through Thursday allowing temps to reach above normal levels, with a second frontal passage scheduled for sometime Thursday night. This second front will bring another round of isolated showers overnight into Friday, but most of the region will remain dry and much colder temps move in just in time for the weekend. Overall, the week ahead is shaping up to be a good one as we all could use a break from the rain, although it would be nice for temps to more seasonal but we'll make up for it next weekend with lows in the 30's.
Monday or Indigenous Peoples' Day will be pleasant with a mixed bag of clouds and sun overhead after dense fog starts the day, perhaps lingering well into the mid morning hours across the valleys; photographers take note, this could be a great picture setup. Temps will be able to reach the low 60's - mid 70's depending upon elevation, which is roughly 4 - 6 degrees above normal for mid October. Overnight lows settle into the low - upper 50's depending upon elevation, under increasing clouds across most of SW NC, while the TN line experiences isolated showers as the front approaches the region.
The front crosses the region around sunrise on Tuesday and sunny skies will take over through Thursday, allowing temps to hold to the low 60's - mid 70's Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoons. Overnight lows will settle into the low - upper 40's depending upon elevation under mostly clear skies, with the exception for Thursday night as clouds and isolated shower sweep the region, exiting by sunrise on Friday (this timeline is not set in stone).
Much colder temps rush into the region on the heels of the departing front, setting a much different end to the work and school week with highs only hitting the mid 40's above 5000', holding to the upper 50's across the valleys under mostly sunny skies. Winds out of the NW will also be steady throughout the day, making it feel much colder, especially in the shade. Next weekend will play out much the same and overnight lows will be the most noticeable change as they settle into the 30's Friday night and every night next weekend.
We'll stop here and circle back on Tuesday, focusing on the timing of the second front and how low temps may go next weekend. ENJOY!