Dry-ish Mon & Tues; Muggy by Wednesday

Good morning folks! We round out the weekend with a few rounds of rain moving through the region, one earlier this morning and a second round likely this afternoon as a disturbance tracks across the region. This is a big shift from our previous discussion, calling for ample sunshine on Sunday and although we will experience a handful of hours with sunny skies, this new wrinkle (upper level disturbance) will bring about a round of showers this afternoon. We are still on track for mostly sunny skies Monday and Tuesday, followed by an uptick in moisture levels on Wednesday that will translate to scattered shower coverage midday. The upper level ridge to our east will slide west just enough to influence our region Monday and Tuesday but eventually this will shift back east (sometime Wednesday), while at the same time a high pressure system off the coast spins moisture back into our region. Temps will peak on Monday and Tuesday to the upper 80's - low 90's across the valleys and slowly return to normal levels (low - mid 80's) by the end of the week as shower chances increase with each passing day. Past Thursday confidence in the forecast drops as two solutions show up on the models, one bringing a tropical wave into the region by Saturday that would result in a round of moderate - heavy rain, while the other solution pushes this wave north and east, resulting in our typical pop up shower chances. Either way moisture levels will increase and muggy conditions are likely by Wed/Thur.


We'll kick off the timeline on Monday and it'll be a hot start to the week as temps soar to the upper 80's - low 90's under mostly sunny skies. This is likely to be our driest day this week with only isolated shower chances along the highest ridgelines and peaks along the Cowee Mountains, Great Balsams, Smoky Mountains, and Highlands Plateau. Overnight lows settle into the mid 50's - low 60's overnight under partly cloudy skies.


Tuesday is a repeat of Monday with a slight uptick in shower coverage but overall we expect another mostly sunny day, with some late day clouds and temps reaching the low 90's in the valleys. By Wednesday the Bermuda High will be approaching the coast and this will introduce above normal moisture levels to the region (again), translating to scattered shower chances after we start the day under sunny skies. Temps will hold to the upper 80's across the valleys, mainly due to partly cloudy coverage after midday and the occasional passing shower. Overnight lows both nights dip into the upper 50's - mid 60's, with shower activity fizzling out past 8 - 9pm.


Thursday into Saturday is not set in stone but even if the tropical wave skips our region, we should see a continuation of scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon, with temps in the mid - upper 80's. If the tropical wave were to swing into WNC then another round of moderate - heavy rain is likely, with coverage expanding to widespread. Nothing at this time points to a flooding event but this is not welcomed news as cleanup begins in the Cruso area this week.


We'll stop here and circle back on Tuesday morning. We'd like to remind everyone you can help those impacted by the flash flooding in Cruso and surrounding southern Haywood county by going to www.helpinghaywood.org.

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